Buds Board Keepers League

To Pittsburgh:
MacKenzie Entwistle

To Vegas:
2024 3rd Rounder (PIT)

Confirmed

Eyssimont is better

Matthew wroteCOLON ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:44 am Eyssimont is better

Meh - more offense, less hits, 3 yrs older. Gimme Entwistle and potential improvement over 3 yrs all day.

I wondered who had topped my bid...wasn't willing to offer more than my remaining 3rd rounder. I'm not actively shopping for players but I'll kick tires on some bargain buys to fill out the lineup for next year.

He seems like an intriguing piece to fill out of the bottom of the lineup since the Blackhawks will be morbidly bad for the foreseeable future.

Shoalzie wroteCOLON ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:18 pm I wondered who had topped my bid...wasn't willing to offer more than my remaining 3rd rounder. I'm not actively shopping for players but I'll kick tires on some bargain buys to fill out the lineup for next year.

He seems like an intriguing piece to fill out of the bottom of the lineup since the Blackhawks will be morbidly bad for the foreseeable future.

Ya my thoughts too. Likelihood of a 2024 3rd making the show when I pick is like… 0.05%

The probability of that pick (time-adjusted estimate) playing five years in the NHL is about 10%. Just saying.

2018 3rd Round Picks: 41.8% played at least one game in the NHL (13 out of 31 picks)
2019 3rd Round Picks: 32.5% played at least one game in the NHL (10 out of 31 picks)
2020 3rd Round Picks: 6.4% played at least one game in the NHL (2 out of 31 picks)

We're still talking about a top 100 pick. Those aren't chump change but obviously the likelihood a pulling out a star or a steady NHLer decreases the deeper you go in the draft...we all know that.

You basically want a player in that round to turn in a full-timer or a journeyman at worst but the odds aren't entirely in your favor like a 1st or 2nd rounder. That's mostly why I've spent a 3rd rounder a roster player on several occasions. I've drafted guys like Shane Pinto and Trent Frederic in our 3rd round...anything is possible I guess.

I've yet fully research our full draft history but I'm sure our hit rates are near what the NHL does.

If you get a 100 games out of that pick I'd call it a success which the probability of is low. That said in most cases I'd rather take multiple swings on picks in this range rather than trade for guys that are unlikely to amount to anything. Entwhistle at least looks like he has a solid chance of sticking around by virtue of Chicago going full tank mode.

My 10% reference is based on a study I did of every top 150 draft pick for over fifty years of data. By pick, with breakdowns for 1, 3 and 5 years of NHL service, adjusted for expansion. The same study incorporates a risk-adjustment for Goals Above Replacement by pick position, which I use to evaluate pick values (ie, a 15th versus a 45th needs what compensation, etc.).

Brian wroteCOLON ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:36 pm The probability of that pick (time-adjusted estimate) playing five years in the NHL is about 10%. Just saying.

I think Mike was poking fun at his own drafting abilities.

Brian wroteCOLON ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:58 pm My 10% reference is based on a study I did of every top 150 draft pick for over fifty years of data. By pick, with breakdowns for 1, 3 and 5 years of NHL service, adjusted for expansion. The same study incorporates a risk-adjustment for Goals Above Replacement by pick position, which I use to evaluate pick values (ie, a 15th versus a 45th needs what compensation, etc.).

The wrinkle with this league is we draft prior to the NHL draft so our 3rd round picks have even more volatility. You might draft someone who goes in the late 1st or you might take a guy who goes undrafted.

Good point. Still, in the two drafts I've done here, it seems like everyone does a pretty good job. The picks aren't wholly inconsistent with actual draft results.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I want to add other data to these sheets but I've at least got the GP included to at least indicate with players have appeared in an NHL game. This goes back to 2014. Our previous drafts haven't been fully "converted" to work in my Google database.

I'd like to do breakout reports from these based on certain criteria. The 100 GP mark is a good measuring stick. See what our "hit rate" is with picks.