Your Prospects and the odds they make the NHL

[armandtanzarian]

Just for fun and to do a little number crunching, i would like each GM to post all of there prospects and assign a % of likelihood that they make the NHL and play at least 100 games. Also, post what round they were drafted in. I will post my very few shortly. The outcome of this will be very informative to the value of prospects in this league.

example:

Jordan Caron - Round 1 - 80%

[Lee]

No

[KapG]

why, you trying to knock the value of prospects down so you can get them on the cheap?

I'll do one, that's it though.

J. Bernier - 1st round - 100%

[armandtanzarian]

haha...no. I would just like to add up and average the numbers from this league and compare it to the actual known stats to show that we as a league may be a bit delusional

[Chris]

Why 100 games? Why not aim higher? The average 1st round pick between 1979 to 1990 has played over 600 games.

[Robin Hood]

Jamie Oleksiak - 100%
Dustin Jeffrey - 100%

There. I listed all my prospects lol.

[armandtanzarian]

No

Don't be scared. Everyone is so confident in there players when trade talks are going on, stand behind your boys and put up some numbers so everyone can either agree with you or bash you...I'll start

Tim Sestito - undrafted - 90%
Alex Friesen - 6th - 30%
Rob Bordson - undrafted - 40%
Michael Haley - undrafted - 70%
Jeremy Colliton - 2nd - 60%
Ryan Spooner - 2nd - 85%
Jordan Caron - 1st - 95%



I got too many. i'll finish later...

[Lee]

I think all of my prospects will make the NHL, otherwise they would not be on my team.

[armandtanzarian]

Why 100 games? Why not aim higher? The average 1st round pick between 1979 to 1990 has played over 600 games.

Because 100 games can be compared against this:

[armandtanzarian]

Jamie Oleksiak - 100%
Dustin Jeffrey - 100%

There. I listed all my prospects lol.

Hopefully he is the same player after that injury.

[Chris]

I've actually done the leg-work myself. Nick can speak to that. The 100 game barometer is an arbitrary bar designed to determine "success". 100 games out of a 1st round pick is not successful.

[Arian The Insider]

all of my prospects are 100%. obviously.

[armandtanzarian]

So that chart is actually overly deceiving?

[kyuss]

Jamie Oleksiak - 100%
Dustin Jeffrey - 100%

There. I listed all my prospects lol.

and we already know you are obv wrong on both




(even if they will play 1000 games, that is, in case you're misunderstanding)

[kyuss]

No

Don't be scared. Everyone is so confident in there players when trade talks are going on, stand behind your boys and put up some numbers so everyone can either agree with you or bash you...

lol, don't you think i already get enough of that without this thread?

[kimmer]

0%

All of mine suck

[Chris]

The attachment shows what I'm working on. I've selected each draft between 1979 to 2011 to flush out the expectation of games-played per draft, per round, per pick, per team, per position. It's not close to finished - and I had to manually input each player's position - but so far, I've found out that 100 games isn't even close to the average number of games played in the first round.

[Chris]

An example of this: In the first round between 1979 to 1990, the average number of games played is 672.12.

For forwards, it's 657.09
For defensemen, it's 704.72
For goaltenders, it's 578.71

Point is, this is only the surface of the expectations for players selected in the first round, and games-played is too one dimensional.

[kimmer]

Rob Ramage is fucking sweet!

[Mike]

Kyle, what is your criteria for a prospect in this thread?