NHL Transactions, Injuries & Rumours

[Nick]

Haven't really said my take on the leafs adding McClemment: When we take his statistics league-wide we see some bad news.

There are 308 forwards with 1000 or more own zone start and with adjusting for minutes of ice time (past 2 years) Jay sits 303rd in terms of goals against rate, a little better (but still crap) 270th in terms of opponents goals for toi.

So, to summarize that, Jay played often with solid defensive teammates, lined up against weaker offensive opponents and still had a dreadful goals against average while he was on the ice.

Now, that's the #; i actually think he's a little better than that, and sometimes the numbers can outright lie. But I think his game has gotten worse each year since 2008. He's probably better than Steckle in terms of 5v5 and the pk. Not going to complain, but not sure we got better.

The thing you forget is that McClement is one of the premier defensive forwards in the NHL right now. Night after night he's matched up against the teams top lines. Its no wonder the guy is like -25 every year when you're tasked with shutting down the Ovechkins, Malkins and Girouxs of the league. Why do you think he was acquired in the EJ deal a few years back? Colordao recognized the important skill set he brings to a team. One of the most underrated players in the league IMO! Very nice pick up by the Leafs.

That's not what the breakdown shows at all.McClement’s opposition was by far the weakest offensively that any Avalanche forward faced last season.

He played against less quality competition then others on the avs, and got scored against more. And it's actually even worse then just an internal avs comparison, he is the 6th worst in the league (by forwards that qualify) for Goals against rate. Other COL players have much better # than him. Jay's opponents averaged .92 goals for every 20 minutes he played; against other opposition his opponents averaged .737 goals for every 20 minutes played; significantly less than RoR opposition average of 0.79 which drops to .657 when Ryan's on the ice (just one example).

Player Name GA20..........OppGF20
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 0.645..........0.787
O_REILLY, RYAN 0.657..........0.790
DUCHENE, MATT 0.780..........0.775
STASTNY, PAUL 0.812..........0.763
HEJDUK, MILAN 0.837..........0.762
JONES, DAVID 0.839..........0.760
KOBASEW, CHUCK 0.878..........0.746
MCCLEMENT, JAY 0.920..........0.737

[Chris]

Worth mentioning, Radek Faksa is the first 2012 draftee to sign an ELC contract. Better for me, it's apparently the maximum.

not sure why thats a happy move.
3.8M for the first three years for Faksa ouchie.
I doubt its the max though

Cap.

[Tony]

Semin heading to KHL?

http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-o ... r-from-khl

[kimmer]

lol omg...

[Shep]

Lmao. That guy got the unconfirmed rumor from one of the biggest Twitter rumour retards. Eklund-esque. While I'm sure the KHL has made a big offer, that source is a joke.

[Shep]

Cannot believe it has spiraled like it has. Just goes to show you people will believe anything they read.

[kimmer]

Funnier thing is that CBS allowed it to post it

[Shep]

Though the KHL is a real possibility, it'll be the last resort. Semin and his agent have repeatedly stated they full intend on staying in the NHL. Usually they use the KHL as leverage, but they haven't even done that. Sure, a contract offer leaking from the KHL could be Gandler's doing, but publicly it's been NHL or bust.

If I lose Semin and Radulov this off-season to the KHL, I'm fucked.

[anton]

shep i will help you lose your semin anytime

[bma]

Shep has a pretty good fantasy team for the KHL.

[Tony]

I don't see it happening, but it's fun to watch Shep sweat

[Shep]

I don't see it happening, but it's fun to watch Shep sweat

Even if I 100% believe he'll sign in the NHL, I'll sweat it out until he officially signs.

[Sensfanjosh]

Take this with a grain of salt but few guys on hfboards are claiming NHL as well as local PITT radio is reporting Semin to Penguins on a one year deal will be announced tomorrow.

[Shep]

Take this with a grain of salt but few guys on hfboards are claiming NHL as well as local PITT radio is reporting Semin to Penguins on a one year deal will be announced tomorrow.

Saw that, we'll see. I wish it wasn't a fucking 1 year deal. Sick of those.

[MSP4LYFE]

That's not what the breakdown shows at all.McClement’s opposition was by far the weakest offensively that any Avalanche forward faced last season.

He played against less quality competition then others on the avs, and got scored against more. And it's actually even worse then just an internal avs comparison, he is the 6th worst in the league (by forwards that qualify) for Goals against rate. Other COL players have much better # than him. Jay's opponents averaged .92 goals for every 20 minutes he played; against other opposition his opponents averaged .737 goals for every 20 minutes played; significantly less than RoR opposition average of 0.79 which drops to .657 when Ryan's on the ice (just one example).

Player Name GA20..........OppGF20
LANDESKOG, GABRIEL 0.645..........0.787
O_REILLY, RYAN 0.657..........0.790
DUCHENE, MATT 0.780..........0.775
STASTNY, PAUL 0.812..........0.763
HEJDUK, MILAN 0.837..........0.762
JONES, DAVID 0.839..........0.760
KOBASEW, CHUCK 0.878..........0.746
MCCLEMENT, JAY 0.920..........0.737

CORSI paints a much more attractive picture of Jay McClements defensive production, and quality of opponents then GA/20 or GF/20. Though I should caution one seasons worth of CORSI or GA/60 data is not nearly enough to accurately evaluate a players true (defensive) worth.

Furthermore, according to GA/60, McClement was vastly more effective in St. Louis then Colorado, I don't know whether that is indicative of a decline in play, a coincidence, or a byproduct of different coaches utilizing McClement differently, but it is interesting to note nonetheless.

P.S. Why did you use GA/20 rather than GA/60?

[Nick]

Corsi is overly team based level of analysis also shown by team dominance of top of
Sorted - unless you believe 5 of the top 10 are canucks or redwings.

Ga/20 is a better measure because it is closer to what the best accomplish in a game - whereas 60 is close to 3 game.

I looks at jays stl # and he was awesome. Top 100 in ga/20 with strong opposition and weak line mates - different story in the last 2 years

[MSP4LYFE]

Corsi is overly team based level of analysis also shown by team dominance of top of
Sorted - unless you believe 5 of the top 10 are canucks or redwings.

Ga/20 is a better measure because it is closer to what the best accomplish in a game - whereas 60 is close to 3 game.

CORSI has it's flaws, but it also measures possession better than any other advanced statistic, and it demonstrates that McClement is useful in limiting the oppositions possession, and zone time in the offensive zone. You can also use CORSI relative which measures how effective a player is in driving possession relative to the rest of his team.

I looks at jays stl # and he was awesome. Top 100 in ga/20 with strong opposition and weak line mates - different story in the last 2 years

I observed the same trend, my hypothesis is that McClement is better suited on the third line playing match-up minutes with offensively capable linemates (who can shelter some of his offensive pitfalls), then on the 4th line with scrubs and heavy special teams TOI.

In Colorado McClement was used sparingly in shutdown 5 on 5 situations, and heavily on the PK. Whereas in St. Louis McClement was the primary shutdown center, and routinely matched up against the oppositions best players.

Additionally, McClement's most frequent linemates in Colorado were Daniel Winnik and Cody McLeod. In St. Louis McClement was most often paired with Alexander Steen and BJ Crombeen. The latter is significantly more proficient at driving puck possession, which may explain McClement's improved effectiveness.

[Nick]

I never considered his use in terms of puck control - he's consistently being referred to as a safe 4th line c who PKs - and the # say he's terrible at it.

So a quick glance suggests kulemin as an ideal linemate? See if both of them can regain form being used in the same way they were during their respective career highs. Damn Kareem there is almost too much logic here.

That entails more toi than I expected, or was portrayed to me. Will be interesting to see.

[Shep]

Dmitry Chesnokov @dchesnokov

As some asked re: the 3 year $30m reported offer to Semin from the KHL - false on both the term and the money.

[shooker]

Dmitry Chesnokov @dchesnokov

As some asked re: the 3 year $30m reported offer to Semin from the KHL - false on both the term and the money.

false on term and money eh? more like a 5 year 340M then or what?