PIT/OTT

[Robin Hood]

To Ottawa

Martin St. Louis

To Pittsburgh

Brandon Sutter

[bills09]

confirm

[kimmer]

shit

[bills09]

Just got real?

[Nick]

That's a nice deal for Billy.

[MSP4LYFE]

Attrition rates for 35+ old athletes are not favorable. In addition, the odds that this deal benefits Ottawa enough in the short term to offset the long term value of Brandon Sutter are slim to none, even if Sutter proves to be an inferior player over the duration of his playing career. Therefore I prefer Pittsburgh's side of this transaction.

[Nick]

MSL doesn't fit the norm or expected for athletes. Never has, why expect him to follow the trend now?

Sutter was in a much better situation in Carolina then he finds himself in Pitts - now he is a 3rd liner & PK man.

MSL is either playing with Stamkos, Vinny, or both, and he adds to their totals, does not live off of them.

Until I see a fall in his game, no way am I calling for it.

[Robin Hood]

MSL doesn't fit the norm or expected for athletes. Never has, why expect him to follow the trend now?

Sutter was in a much better situation in Carolina then he finds himself in Pitts - now he is a 3rd liner & PK man.

MSL is either playing with Stamkos, Vinny, or both, and he adds to their totals, does not live off of them.

Until I see a fall in his game, no way am I calling for it.

Agreed completely on MSL, Nick.

I just made the deal because I knew I'd be moving Henrik out.

That being said, I disagree on Sutter - He will get Jordan's minutes almost identically. And he is good enough to generate a similar output. Not to mention a few factors play in his favour: 1) Sheltering from Crosby and Malkin 2) Bylsma will give him unlimited minutes in a checking role which is money in our league. I actually think 200 SHTOI is reachable from C + 75 Blocks which is unique at forward (Something people don't realize about Sutter is that he had 85 Blocks last year which is unreal). Couple that with about 40 points and I'd say he's very comparable to MSL in terms of value in this league. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets an awesome winger on his line to balance the offence.

[Shep]

MSL doesn't fit the norm or expected for athletes. Never has, why expect him to follow the trend now?

Sutter was in a much better situation in Carolina then he finds himself in Pitts - now he is a 3rd liner & PK man.

MSL is either playing with Stamkos, Vinny, or both, and he adds to their totals, does not live off of them.

Until I see a fall in his game, no way am I calling for it.

Agreed completely on MSL, Nick.

I just made the deal because I knew I'd be moving Henrik out.

That being said, I disagree on Sutter - He will get Jordan's minutes almost identically. And he is good enough to generate a similar output. Not to mention a few factors play in his favour: 1) Sheltering from Crosby and Malkin 2) Bylsma will give him unlimited minutes in a checking role which is money in our league. I actually think 200 SHTOI is reachable from C + 75 Blocks which is unique at forward (Something people don't realize about Sutter is that he had 85 Blocks last year which is unreal). Couple that with about 40 points and I'd say he's very comparable to MSL in terms of value in this league. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets an awesome winger on his line to balance the offence.

They only have 1 winger that would be even close to "awesome" and there is no way he's playing on Line 3.

[bills09]

MSL doesn't fit the norm or expected for athletes. Never has, why expect him to follow the trend now?

Sutter was in a much better situation in Carolina then he finds himself in Pitts - now he is a 3rd liner & PK man.

MSL is either playing with Stamkos, Vinny, or both, and he adds to their totals, does not live off of them.

Until I see a fall in his game, no way am I calling for it.

Agreed completely on MSL, Nick.

I just made the deal because I knew I'd be moving Henrik out.

That being said, I disagree on Sutter - He will get Jordan's minutes almost identically. And he is good enough to generate a similar output. Not to mention a few factors play in his favour: 1) Sheltering from Crosby and Malkin 2) Bylsma will give him unlimited minutes in a checking role which is money in our league. I actually think 200 SHTOI is reachable from C + 75 Blocks which is unique at forward (Something people don't realize about Sutter is that he had 85 Blocks last year which is unreal). Couple that with about 40 points and I'd say he's very comparable to MSL in terms of value in this league. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets an awesome winger on his line to balance the offence.

Agreed with Shiv, In real life this deal is absolute rape. but h2h Imo its a pretty decent deal.
Shiv gains shtoi fow bs while getting the younger cheaper player, I gain in g a p stpts sog.

That being said makes my return on Spezza look a lot nicer.

Hodgson+St Louis+Lukas Sutter

[Nick]

I'd be absolutely shocked if Sutter got Staal's minutes - he was used as much much more then a 3rd line C, or first PK - he was key matchups, lots of double PK, strong role on the PP and always on the ice for final minutes of the game - that's WITH 2 of Crosby, Neal, Malkin, Kunitz.


I do agree that Sutter will keep his epic SHTOI and BS (which i agree he's the best forward at in the NHL, who has any skill whatsoever). Also likely correct that league value on MSL and Sutter is roughly the same, just that I like MSL more - and would fit my style of trying to win.

[Robin Hood]

I'd be absolutely shocked if Sutter got Staal's minutes - he was used as much much more then a 3rd line C, or first PK - he was key matchups, lots of double PK, strong role on the PP and always on the ice for final minutes of the game - that's WITH 2 of Crosby, Neal, Malkin, Kunitz.


I do agree that Sutter will keep his epic SHTOI and BS (which i agree he's the best forward at in the NHL, who has any skill whatsoever). Also likely correct that league value on MSL and Sutter is roughly the same, just that I like MSL more - and would fit my style of trying to win.

I agree that Jordan is more talented but where else would his minutes go?

Sutter's a lock to play on PP2
PK1 is a lock
ES he will get matched up against every top line

What's left?

[Nick]

Staal (20:03) averaged more toi then Crosby (19:08), Neal (18:28) or Kunitz (18:18), whereas on Carolina Sutter was notable less (17:23). Brandon was not used on PP by Carolina (approx 25sec a game), and might not be by the Penguins either - his PK TOI cannot really increase, and his even strength toi will not be via matchup as much when BOTH Crosby and Malkin are healthy. The minutes Staal used to carry at the end of games and key situations will be left for the other big 3 to carry - and I'll add emphasis on Sutter not having the offensive impact of Staal, removing some toi as well.

IMO Sutter will maintain around 16:30-17:30 most games. Not the 20minutes that Staal uses.


FWIW since 2006 MSL has been #1 on TBL for TOI, with some years over 24min a night, and never a season since the lockout under 20:58 - age? LOL, like Whitney, Doan or Teemu he's a fitness freak with excpectional skating and grew up playing the game as a smaller player when the league was MUCH rougher, I'd wager he's got years left as a serious impact player.

[Robin Hood]

Staal (20:03) averaged more toi then Crosby (19:08), Neal (18:28) or Kunitz (18:18), whereas on Carolina Sutter was notable less (17:23). Brandon was not used on PP by Carolina (approx 25sec a game), and might not be by the Penguins either - his PK TOI cannot really increase, and his even strength toi will not be via matchup as much when BOTH Crosby and Malkin are healthy. The minutes Staal used to carry at the end of games and key situations will be left for the other big 3 to carry - and I'll add emphasis on Sutter not having the offensive impact of Staal, removing some toi as well.

IMP Sutter will maintain around 16:30-17:30 most games. Not the 20minutes that Staal uses.

Staal's 20 Minutes are inflated due to 2 reasons:

1) Crosby being out
2) Staals SHTOI gives him an edge over Neal and Kunitz

A Staal in a healthy season for Crosby would get around the same number of minutes as a Sutter (maybe Staal gets 1 minute more of offence i.e. 18 vs 17.

Also, you're trying to use logic of ice-time one way but not the other.

If Malkin and Crosby play on PP1 together, there needs to be a C on PP2. PP1 won't suddenly see more time because Sutter is on PP2 instead of Staal. Bylsma is more than likely to roll his lines similarly.

Also, you have to compare this more from the coach's standpoint. Sutter is a very capable and offensive 3rd line C when you look around the league. Why would Bylsma give others more of Jordan's minutes? In his position, he is more than likely to trust Sutter with the exact same role - now if Sutter struggles, it's possible his icetime gets lowered but why wouldn't he see the same ice if he fills the role - which he is capable of doing.

[Robin Hood]

Keep in mind btw, Sutter is only 23. Jordan developed a lot faster than normal but this is the ideal age for PIT to give Sutter such a role. Jordan's further along in his development but Sutter has the tools to succeed.

[Nick]

Staal's 20 Minutes are inflated due to 2 reasons:

False. No need to continue because Staal is consistent 19-21min, however I will entertain a fun hockey discussion; his only two seasons under 19 were his sophomore season (18:16) and when he was as a rookie (14:56).

1) Crosby being out

Previous years, or playoffs, he continues to be above 19min a game.

2) Staals SHTOI gives him an edge over Neal and Kunitz

Staal's ES toi is right in line with Neals and exceeds Kunitz's.
PP toi is a big add for both of them ( but they still play less then Staal).

A Staal in a healthy season for Crosby would get around the same number of minutes as a Sutter (maybe Staal gets 1 minute more of offence i.e. 18 vs 17.

That has never been the case, history does not indicate as much. I'd wager Staal see's much more toi in Carolina then Sutter did - and vice versa (does that work here - meant more for staal and similarly less for sutter - equal but opposite).

Also, you're trying to use logic of ice-time one way but not the other.

If Malkin and Crosby play on PP1 together, there needs to be a C on PP2. PP1 won't suddenly see more time because Sutter is on PP2 instead of Staal. Bylsma is more than likely to roll his lines similarly.

Malkin plays point on PP1 and last year was playing centre for PP2 - not saying Sutter WON"T be PP2, however he's unlikely to exceed Staal's 1:59 pp toi/g. Bylsma definitley doesn't role his lines, nor did he line match when both Sid, Geno and Staal were healthy, he pushed the 3 out on all sorts of situations over-powering the oppositions shut down lines and top pairing.

Also, you have to compare this more from the coach's standpoint. Sutter is a very capable and offensive 3rd line C when you look around the league. Why would Bylsma give others more of Jordan's minutes? In his position, he is more than likely to trust Sutter with the exact same role - now if Sutter struggles, it's possible his icetime gets lowered but why wouldn't he see the same ice if he fills the role - which he is capable of doing.

Sutter is not as capable as Jordan, I believe you've already said as much. IMO he's not as strong, good with the puck, no where near the hands, he's not as big and he not as proven in big games. Although I see that you're saying there is 20min toi available with Jordan leaving, I disagree that it will all go to Brandon. That same toi was definitely available on a much weaker Carolina team, and Sutter didn't get it there, that PP2 spot was WIDE open on Carolina, and he didn't claim it there. IMO what you're projecting is a change in a player, him growing into a bigger hole then the previous role he's played - a role that I do not believe he is capable of. I consider myself one of the biggest Sutter fan's - confident he can be a 20/15 guy for some time - but I'd be shocked if he was top 4 toi for the penguins - which puts him between 16-18 a night as a 3rd line C used heavily on the PK.

[MSP4LYFE]

MSL doesn't fit the norm or expected for athletes. Never has, why expect him to follow the trend now?

I expect Martin St. Louis to follow the trend because the overwhelming majority of NHL players decline after the age of 35. This is an especially prevalent trend among forwards.

Your counter-argument hinges on the possibility that Martin St. Louis is the exception, and there is certainly an exception to every rule. However, it is foolish to bet against such poor odds with a valuable asset (Brandon Sutter). It would be akin to betting a large sum of money on a lottery ticket. I prefer to air on the side of caution, I may err on occasion, but far more often than not I will come out better for it. Which is precisely why I prefer this trade for Pittsburgh, the odds are significantly in his favor.

Sutter was in a much better situation in Carolina then he finds himself in Pitts - now he is a 3rd liner & PK man.

I concur.

Until I see a fall in his game, no way am I calling for it.

By that time it will have been too late, and your asset will have depreciated in value, perhaps by a significant margin. Trading for aging veterans is risky business, unless a team is on the cusp of contention it is difficult to warrant trading significant assets for them.

[Nick]

Until I see a fall in his game, no way am I calling for it.

By that time it will have been too late, and your asset will have depreciated in value, perhaps by a significant margin. Trading for aging veterans is risky business, unless a team is on the cusp of contention it is difficult to warrant trading significant assets for them.

Oh I agree on your assessment of value, older players are worth less & less the longer they are considered cold, sub-25 have added value; but if you think MSL will have low value after this season I believe you'd be mistaken. I also believe there would be a visible fall in his game well before the numbers fall off - lots of time to move him. Now, MSL has 3 years left on his contract, that is a ton of safety, if that were one year, or he had a history of injuries, I would be more inline with your perception of the deal, but as it stands he's a ultra-safe better for a top line winger for even the most conservative planning of your team.

[MSP4LYFE]

Oh I agree on your assessment of value, older players are worth less & less the longer they are considered cold, sub-25 have added value; but if you think MSL will have low value after this season I believe you'd be mistaken.

I work under the assumption that every player aged 35 or older will depreciate in value, if I dismissed attrition rates on a case by case basis I would be contradicting the entire process. Unless of course I had ample, objective evidence to substantiate my position.

I also believe there would be a visible fall in his game well before the numbers fall off - lots of time to move him.

Once you lose a step as a professional athlete you never get it back, decline is instantaneous, not gradual; I imagine these trends are especially prevalent among smaller hockey players, such as Martin St. Louis, but admittedly that is just speculation.

Now, MSL has 3 years left on his contract, that is a ton of safety, if that were one year, or he had a history of injuries, I would be more inline with your perception of the deal.

If Martin St. Louis depreciates significantly in value it won't matter how many years are left on his contract, the owner will not get an equal return on his investment, in this instance, Brandon Sutter.

but as it stands he's a ultra-safe better for a top line winger for even the most conservative planning of your team.

The correlation between past production, and future production is not significant at Martin St. Louis' age. It is therefore misleading to associate Martin St. Louis with "safe" at this stage of his career.

[Arian The Insider]

there's a lockout, so you both lose.