PIT/OTT

[Nick]

I'd like to see your calculation for 35 year old players being the magic line Kareem - I've never seen statistics detailing a age/year fall-off.

[Robin Hood]

Staal's 20 Minutes are inflated due to 2 reasons:

False. No need to continue because Staal is consistent 19-21min, however I will entertain a fun hockey discussion; his only two seasons under 19 were his sophomore season (18:16) and when he was as a rookie (14:56).

1) Crosby being out

Previous years, or playoffs, he continues to be above 19min a game.

2) Staals SHTOI gives him an edge over Neal and Kunitz

Staal's ES toi is right in line with Neals and exceeds Kunitz's.
PP toi is a big add for both of them ( but they still play less then Staal).

A Staal in a healthy season for Crosby would get around the same number of minutes as a Sutter (maybe Staal gets 1 minute more of offence i.e. 18 vs 17.

That has never been the case, history does not indicate as much. I'd wager Staal see's much more toi in Carolina then Sutter did - and vice versa (does that work here - meant more for staal and similarly less for sutter - equal but opposite).

Also, you're trying to use logic of ice-time one way but not the other.

If Malkin and Crosby play on PP1 together, there needs to be a C on PP2. PP1 won't suddenly see more time because Sutter is on PP2 instead of Staal. Bylsma is more than likely to roll his lines similarly.

Malkin plays point on PP1 and last year was playing centre for PP2 - not saying Sutter WON"T be PP2, however he's unlikely to exceed Staal's 1:59 pp toi/g. Bylsma definitley doesn't role his lines, nor did he line match when both Sid, Geno and Staal were healthy, he pushed the 3 out on all sorts of situations over-powering the oppositions shut down lines and top pairing.

Also, you have to compare this more from the coach's standpoint. Sutter is a very capable and offensive 3rd line C when you look around the league. Why would Bylsma give others more of Jordan's minutes? In his position, he is more than likely to trust Sutter with the exact same role - now if Sutter struggles, it's possible his icetime gets lowered but why wouldn't he see the same ice if he fills the role - which he is capable of doing.

Sutter is not as capable as Jordan, I believe you've already said as much. IMO he's not as strong, good with the puck, no where near the hands, he's not as big and he not as proven in big games. Although I see that you're saying there is 20min toi available with Jordan leaving, I disagree that it will all go to Brandon. That same toi was definitely available on a much weaker Carolina team, and Sutter didn't get it there, that PP2 spot was WIDE open on Carolina, and he didn't claim it there. IMO what you're projecting is a change in a player, him growing into a bigger hole then the previous role he's played - a role that I do not believe he is capable of. I consider myself one of the biggest Sutter fan's - confident he can be a 20/15 guy for some time - but I'd be shocked if he was top 4 toi for the penguins - which puts him between 16-18 a night as a 3rd line C used heavily on the PK.

1) You are bending what I said about Staal's ice time. He got 20 minutes but he is closer to a 18-19 minute player when Sid and Malkin play. Staal's icetime in the season before Crosby's concussion season was 19:23. After Crosby's concussion it was over 21/game. This is a huge difference.
2) Staal's ES ice time was on par with Neal's in a season where Crosby was out for half the year. The landscape drastically changes when Sid is back. Now mind you. Staal is talented enough to play the minutes he played in Sid's absence. In fact he will get just as much if not more in Carolina. But that is not what is being argued. Ice can only be divided in so many ways when Sid and Malkin are ahead of you.
3) In your last paragraph, you have resorted to subjective valuation of a player. I don't care what Jordan vs Sutter is in the real world. I'll take Jordan every day there. What is different about the BBKL world is what will that look like in numbers. Sutter will never be Jordan offensively - we both know this. But what will Sutter's stats look like in PIT compared to Jordan's in PIT before Crosby's concussion? Note: Jordan was an elite elite BBKLer even then.

Jordan's stats in 2009-2010: 21G, 28A, 49PTS, 274 SHTOI, 639 FOW.

Sutter can easily hit the 40 point mark in PIT and maybe even 45. 20G? Did it in CAR. 274 SHTOI? Maybe closer to 200-225. 600+ FOW? Easy.

What is being argued is not that Sutter will put up Jordan's statline. But that he will be given the same amount of ice/close to it. He is not as talented so he won't do as much Jordan did. But the fact that he get's the ice is half the battle as this is a chicken and the egg type scenario.

4) Just because Sutter had lesser competition in CAR doesn't mean anything. The reverse of that argument is that he will be sheltered in PIT hence PIT might be the better situation.
5) This is the point that is indisputable:

PP2 is definitely a lock for Sutter. Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Letang and one of Kunitz/Dupuis will like be PP1. Who does that leave for PP2? Sutter HAS to slot at C with Dupuis/Kunitz + whoever on his wings.
PK1 is lock we can all agree, at which point you have to ask - does he get more PK time in PIT than in CAR? Yes. Because his role will be more defined in PIT than CAR
ES Bylsmsa is not suddenly scale back Line 3s TOI. Sutter and his wingers will see a solid chunk of time.

In the end, Sutter's icetime will likely be around 17-20 per night instead of the 16-18 that you're suggesting.

[Nick]

We agree in the 17-18 middle disagree at extremes.

[Robin Hood]

We agree in the 17-18 middle disagree at extremes.

Haha, I guess. Man I'm a huge Sutter fan. Him being 23, I think there's definite room to develop and PIT is the perfect situation.

[MSP4LYFE]

I'd like to see your calculation for 35 year old players being the magic line Kareem - I've never seen statistics detailing a age/year fall-off.

The fall off typically occurs before the age of 30, believe it or not. However, I like to use 35 as a reference point because of NHL teams policies on signing players 35 or older, and because there is a more significant drop off at age 35 and older. I don't have a computer so I cannot link you to any source material, but a simple google search of "NHL Players peak ages" (or some variance of this) will link you to a number of different studies on the subject. Believe me there is no shortage of material on the subject.

Edit, here is a brief link that discusses some of the aforementioned trends:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showt ... p=53974037

[Nick]

For goal scorers it is very well studied as it turns out - and it was done by several sources. I enjoyed the following little finding.

Most goals scored by age:

At 18: Gretzky, 51
At 19: Gretzky, 55
At 20: Gretzky, 92
At 21: Gretzky, 71
At 22: Gretzky, 87
At 23: Lemieux, 85
At 24: Kurri, 71
At 25: Brett Hull, 72
At 26: Brett Hull, 86
At 27: Brett Hull, Nichols, 70
At 28: Esposito, 76
At 29: Esposito, McDonald, 66
At 30: Lemieux, 69
At 31: Esposito, 68
At 32: Esposito, 61
At 33: Jagr, 54
At 34: Messier, 47
At 35: Bucyk, 51
At 36: Selanne, 48
At 37: Bucyk, 40
At 38: Brett Hull, 37
At 39: Howe, 39
At 40: Howe, 44
At 41: Howe, 31
At 42: Howe, 23

This list makes me appreciate how amazing Selanne really is, paints a clean picture of how completely unreal Gretzky's stats were early in his career, and how dominant Esposito was in his late 20s-early 30s. Howe deserved his own sentence because he just didn't slow down.

fwiw - the few graphs and studies i could find focusing on post-lockout either lacked data points or had some shotty assumptions made. Going to keep looking

Kareem your link is good - but the selection is so seriously flawed it can hardly be taken as an indication of anything. i wish he just said random 60 players instead of him choosing players he considers top 6.

[MSP4LYFE]

The selection I found is quite literally the only URL my phone would link too. There was one very interesting study that looked at peaks and drop offs across different sports, and accounted for generational factors. Hopefully I will be able to link you to that site once my laptop gets back from Future Shop. Until then I don't have access to much, lol.