League Announcements Discussion

[Matthew]

Everyone?

You guys kee arguing over odds. The odds will be the same.

People may be upset that if the nhl doesn't announce the 8-15 team that won we will need to re-do it with a simulator, but that doesn't change that the odds will be exactly the same.

Them winning the first time doesn't make it any less likely they will win the second time. Zero. Zip.

[foofnik]

Other CC members like Scott have chimed in to follow the NHL lottery

Scott is not a CC member.

Was he not part of the this lottery discussion that was had prior to any announcement? If he was part of it, then semantics of calling him a 'member' or not. If he was not then I rescind my examples using him as I thought he would be part of these kind of discussions considering his role and importance in this league.

[Matthew]

Other CC members like Scott have chimed in to follow the NHL lottery

Scott is not a CC member.

Was he not part of the this lottery discussion that was had prior to any announcement? If he was part of it, then semantics of calling him a 'member' or not. If he was not then I rescind my examples using him as I thought he would be part of these kind of discussions considering his role and importance in this league.

He was part of the discussion but not the vote.


I was the original person to push for the simulator. The nhl hadn't been clear. Now that I see it can (probably) done pretty straight forward, I don't care which way we do it, but I have changed my vote to the NHL draft.

I thought it would be nice to get everyone back into hockey the first day of the play-in with the lotto, and then have the draft start with the first day of the 16 team playoff though. It's not that big of a deal, however. If most people wanna use the nhl draft I'm all for it, as we are suppose to be representing a fair league, and what most people want to do.

[kyuss]

You're wrong. It's like flipping a coin. Even if you get heads the first time, the chances you get heads the second time are still 50%.

of course. But if you say the 1st flip can't result in heads and in such case you have to do it again, the 50% will only apply to the new flip, not to the balance of the two flips you took

[Jordan (VGK)]

Everyone?

You guys kee arguing over odds. The odds will be the same.

People may be upset that if the nhl doesn't announce the 8-15 team that won we will need to re-do it with a simulator, but that doesn't change that the odds will be exactly the same.

Sorry was just confused at who "you" was without much context given.

Agree with Mik's point regarding overall odds.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Them winning the first time doesn't make it any less likely they will win the second time. Zero. Zip.

That's just incorrect. Using your coin example we are effectively saying: flip a coin once if it's heads the outcome stands. If it's tails flip again. The only way heads isn't flipped is if both flips are Tails which occurs 25% of the time. That conditional aspect shifts the odds to heads getting one outcome. The parralel to our lottery is that if 3 bottom 7 teams win the lottery we have no idea if the NHL would have released Team A-H if any of them won, giving it that condtional aspect of a successful heads coin flip on try 1.

Understanding that conditional edge is what you're giving if you choose to use the NHL results and they aren't useable is basically the key to everything. It's weighing how much you care about that edge vs. people being mad if Friday's result would have been compatible and we decided to skip it before. The likelihood of NHL result being compatible and the upside of no asterisks lead me to my conclusion.

[Lee]

I'm just excited to be punished, yet again, for something I had no part in.

We need to stop picking and choosing to follow NHL rules when it's convenient for certain members of the CC.

You can always quit again if things don't suit you.

So I should quit because I think we should consistently follow nhl rules and not pick and choose when it benefits cc members? Maybe the cc should be disbanded if they can't stick to their own plan of nhl parity. Using an easily corrupted system like a lotto generator is stupid

[Sensfanjosh]

If that's how you see this situation then maybe it is best if you quit.

[kimmer]

Guys/gals/kimmer

lol

[Matthew]

Them winning the first time doesn't make it any less likely they will win the second time. Zero. Zip.

That's just incorrect. Using your coin example we are effectively saying: flip a coin once if it's heads the outcome stands. If it's tails flip again. The only way heads isn't flipped is if both flips are Tails which occurs 25% of the time. That conditional aspect shifts the odds to heads getting one outcome. The parralel to our lottery is that if 3 bottom 7 teams win the lottery we have no idea if the NHL would have released Team A-H if any of them won, giving it that condtional aspect of a successful heads coin flip on try 1.

Understanding that conditional edge is what you're giving if you choose to use the NHL results and they aren't useable is basically the key to everything. It's weighing how much you care about that edge vs. people being mad if Friday's result would have been compatible and we decided to skip it before. The likelihood of NHL result being compatible and the upside of no asterisks lead me to my conclusion.

In that case, the only way to use the NHL draft lottery is to know before the lottery is started that they will be releasing the A-H no matter what, otherwise the odds are favourable with the bottom 7 teams, over what is normal.

Whereas if we disclude that possibility ahead of time by saying the NHL results will not be used, everyone has the same percentage chance as a normal year (use a simulator).

So the key is we need to know ahead of time whether they are planning on releasing A-H.

It seems it's almost for sure they will release a video such as this one though, given we know they will use letters and that they have released these videos in the past: https://youtu.be/YlLLO5lPsPY

So if we use the NHL we should be safe. This video was released the day after the NHL's lottery in 2019.

[Jordan (VGK)]

Them winning the first time doesn't make it any less likely they will win the second time. Zero. Zip.

That's just incorrect. Using your coin example we are effectively saying: flip a coin once if it's heads the outcome stands. If it's tails flip again. The only way heads isn't flipped is if both flips are Tails which occurs 25% of the time. That conditional aspect shifts the odds to heads getting one outcome. The parralel to our lottery is that if 3 bottom 7 teams win the lottery we have no idea if the NHL would have released Team A-H if any of them won, giving it that condtional aspect of a successful heads coin flip on try 1.

Understanding that conditional edge is what you're giving if you choose to use the NHL results and they aren't useable is basically the key to everything. It's weighing how much you care about that edge vs. people being mad if Friday's result would have been compatible and we decided to skip it before. The likelihood of NHL result being compatible and the upside of no asterisks lead me to my conclusion.

In that case, the only way to use the NHL draft lottery is to know before the lottery is done that they will be releasing the A-H no matter what, otherwise the odds are favourable with the bottom 7 teams, over what is normal.

Whereas if we disclude that possibility ahead of time by saying the NHL results will not be used, everyone has the same percentage chance as a normal year (use a simulator).

So the key is we need to know ahead of time whether they are planning on releasing A-H.

Some may come to that conclusion yes.

But with no information pointing to them not telling us, I think the sensible approach is trusting they will and seeing what happens as that option at least gives us some chance of no asterisk beside our lottery results. Even if it's 50/50 between them telling us or not, the chances are still greater than not that we will have a compatible result. As CC in other leagues, I really wouldn't want to explain Friday night that even though Team F, B, and D won the lotto we are ignoring it for a simulated result later. At least the NHL not telling us would be out of my control and I wouldn't be a source of blame. My $0.02.

[foofnik]

As it's Thursday morning now I assume we're not getting that vote and we'll use NHL results with a disclaimer on time frame for official results on the small chance they don't give it during the lottery itself, before we officially move to our own lottery, to be detailed to the public later of course.

[Matthew]

*burns down barn*

[Jordan (VGK)]

Friday result:

1. Unnamed placeholder
2. Unnamed placeholder
3. Unnamed placeholder

[foofnik]

Amen, common sense prevails

Thank you all for your undivided attention, I'll go back to my hole now

[dave1959]

As it's Thursday morning now I assume we're not getting that vote and we'll use NHL results with a disclaimer on time frame for official results on the small chance they don't give it during the lottery itself, before we officially move to our own lottery, to be detailed to the public later of course.

I am good with this

[Matthew]

8pm eastern time tomorrow
5pm pacific

For those wanting to follow the lotto

[Shoalzie]

Friday result:

1. Unnamed placeholder
2. Unnamed placeholder
3. Unnamed placeholder

Wouldn't that be wild?

I just don't see the point of the NHL keeping the identity of those slots a secret when they'll have to re-draw and all 8 of those teams get equal odds. If Team D gets #2 on Friday, then say it but it could end being Team G who wins the real draw in July. We don't know who any of these 8 teams are anyway.

[Matthew]

The NHL has released the actual drawing of the balls the last few years due to people worrying about tampering. You'd think tampering would be even a bigger concern this year, so I'd expect that video to be released Saturday or Sunday.

[Matthew]

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