NHL Transactions, Injuries & Rumours

[CAM]

Ok Nick, so now you got me hooked. What is the average outcome of this experiment? 10 random people, has it ever made it to the 10,000?

[The BBKL Insider]

Ok Nick, so now you got me hooked. What is the average outcome of this experiment? 10 random people, has it ever made it to the 10,000?

Ive been thinking about this as well. I think it depends on the type of people. If u put 10 poor people id wager someone answers the phone. 10 well off people and no one would. Now if u put 10 random people I can see it having around a 50% success rate.

I can tell u that there are many people in this league id trust and not trust in a booth.

[Nick]

I forget the actual % outcomes but recall the generalities.

1) idiots -> as indicated by post secondary eduction and a follow up regarding math competence both found a relationship that groups who are good at math/finance/numbers are less likely to pickup the phone. vice-versa was even more pronounced, lack of numerical intelligence/confidence/whatever increased chance of not waiting. This happened after the first minute. literally they thought about it for 5 minutes and chose the $2500, its the stupid outcome.

2) psychopaths, way harder to measure, but once again there have been 100+ follow up studies and lots seem to indicate a willingness to pickup the phone right away, (first 10 seconds or some short period) means you'd likely score fairly far along a bunch of psychopathy scales. Calculated decision that you want to win and don't care it's at the expense of the others. This was actually what the researcher was trying to measure originally. Forgot about stupid people which confounds the vast majority of the results.

3) Some awareness that knowing other people had an undergrad in business or whatever increased the effect of #1, or alternatively a story expressing the low income status/ tight rent payement or lack of education in across the group led to much higher rates of picking up the phone (or whatever the 'button' was).


On a whole it was a spin-off of the chain of Millgram's experiments regarding the power of situations/authority versus individual differences. I think it captured bits of both and depending on how your prime the studies you can manipulate the outcomes. But on a whole it was less than 50% waited the 10 minutes, the first set of tests done at Standford had a rate closer to 80% and some subgroups/primes got way down... like 500 samples and none made it through 10 minutes.


repeat testing resulted in conditioned behavour. if you waited the first time and it worked you waited the second. if you waited the first time and someone picked up the phone, you picked it up the next time. and of course if you picked it up the first time you picked it up the next.


just to be clear, they also had ethical clearance to be deceptive about the money, they showed the $ (cheques) in most cases to really drive home they would be paid. However I don't believe it was ever given out except in cases where they played around with the amount of money.

[Bruyns]

Ok Nick, so now you got me hooked. What is the average outcome of this experiment? 10 random people, has it ever made it to the 10,000?

Ive been thinking about this as well. I think it depends on the type of people. If u put 10 poor people id wager someone answers the phone. 10 well off people and no one would. Now if u put 10 random people I can see it having around a 50% success rate.

I can tell u that there are many people in this league id trust and not trust in a booth.

Answering the phone costs you $7500 so it's not a very smart decision. If you are poor you are better off with no one answering, but the fear of getting $0 can do crazy things I'd assume.

There was also a US game show recently where 2 people could win a lot of money. If they both chose share they split the $50K or whatever amount, if one chose steal and the other share then the stealer gets everything and the other nothing, both choosing steal means they both get nothing. The interesting part is they have to look each other in the eye and negotiate and explain/lie to the other why they should both choose share and split the money and try and use sob stories to make the other person not want to screw them.

[Nick]

that's studied as "Game Theory" or "prisoners' dilemma" always interesting.

[The BBKL Insider]

it's a very interesting study. I can see the success rate in the bbkl being around 50%. I've also put a group of people together who i think would wait the 10 mins and a group of people together who i dont think would/could wait and would thus answer the phone. My list wasn't judgemental either (as in i didn't base it on how much i like or dislike someone)

[kimmer]

Guys like Lee would just answer the phone man. That guys so full of himself

[Nick]

the top outcomes for negotiating muilti-level game theory and been run in literally 10's of thousands of tests is:
Nice - Retaliating -Forgiving & Non-envious

in that sequence. this is a loved study and tool in evolutionary psychology.

[CAM]

I would be curious to see the list steve and the reasoning to each placement. I would also like to see the peoples defense to where they are placed....

[Bruyns]

that's studied as "Game Theory" or "prisoners' dilemma" always interesting.

Yep, I enjoyed game theory in university

[Bruyns]

it's a very interesting study. I can see the success rate in the bbkl being around 50%. I've also put a group of people together who i think would wait the 10 mins and a group of people together who i dont think would/could wait and would thus answer the phone. My list wasn't judgemental either (as in i didn't base it on how much i like or dislike someone)

I don't think 50% of BBKL are idiots or pschopaths haha. It's pretty simple everyone don't be stupid and you get 4X the prize for ruining it for everyone else.

[Shep]

Braden Holtby is a top 5 goaltender in the NHL. I don't think it's unreasonable.

[The BBKL Insider]

it's a very interesting study. I can see the success rate in the bbkl being around 50%. I've also put a group of people together who i think would wait the 10 mins and a group of people together who i dont think would/could wait and would thus answer the phone. My list wasn't judgemental either (as in i didn't base it on how much i like or dislike someone)

I don't think 50% of BBKL are idiots or pschopaths haha. It's pretty simple everyone don't be stupid and you get 4X the prize for ruining it for everyone else.

that's a simple theory for most people, but so many people wouldn't be able to justify that to themselves. And when i say 50% fail rate in the bbkl, that doesn't mean i think 50% would pick up the phone. I think there's a group of 5 or 6 guys that would - because of the reasons nick listed). But the chances of at least 1 of those guys being in each study (1/10 people) would be at least 50% of the time.

[Lee]

Guys like Lee would just answer the phone man. That guys so full of himself

With that much money, you might be able to ship the rest of your family over from Korea.

With that knowledge, I'd definitely pick up early.

[Bruyns]

Braden Holtby is a top 5 goaltender in the NHL. I don't think it's unreasonable.

Would make him the 2nd highest paid goalie and it's for a RFA year not a UFA year. I'd guess he ends up at 6.5ish

[kimmer]

Guys like Lee would just answer the phone man. That guys so full of himself

With that much money, you might be able to ship the rest of your family over from Korea.

With that knowledge, I'd definitely pick up early.

lol Korea is a 1st world country, people there are completely content staying put where they are as long as they have a property (which is the only limiting factor there with lack of land mass)

[CAM]

Braden Holtby is a top 5 goaltender in the NHL. I don't think it's unreasonable.

With cap increase and age and where he is he definitely deserves to get paid. I mean my goalie has a 7 mil cap hit that so far he deserves.

[foofnik]

There have been tons of tests like that done in similar situations all over the world. The outcome is always the same, no one makes it to the end when it's more than just a few people. Once you introduce larger numbers of people or anonymity, it's game over for the bigger prize.

In college I was a part of group testing, which sometimes used theories like this one. Something like everyone sits at a computer with other screens blocked off, no talking, no phones, etc. First test is 2 people, then 4, then 6, up to the whole room. And run a bunch of times with different groups then can pinpoint the time at which the scales are tipped. We did a bunch of different stuff, all of it was interesting. I loved getting those phone calls to come in again, easy money. They paid well too, always worked out to minimum $20 an hour, cash.

As for me, I would love to be able to sit back and wait on it, but driving to work everyday reinforces that there are alot of stupid people in the world, so in order to save myself from them, I would probably push the button/pick up the phone. Would depend on number of participants and info on backgrounds would help as well, but going in blind with 10 people, hell yeah I'm picking it up instantly. That's purely a calculated assumption that one of the other 9 will do the same thing. The other factor is I started with nothing. So do I guarantee $2500 or take the long odds that no one else will do it for $10k. Not dissimilar to finding a $20 on the ground and then having the choice to keep the $20 or buy a lotto ticket.

Burger King actually did something like this I think last summer. They made a Facebook app and what you did was delete friends off of FB. If you deleted 10, they gave you a coupon for a free Whopper or whatever. The catch is that it posts to the world and sends a message to that person that you deleted that person. No anonymity there. To dispel cheaters, you had to be friend with the person for over 1 month or something so you couldn't make a bunch of accounts and delete yourself for free sandwiches. I'd be curious to see numbers from that but doubt they're posted anywhere.

[kyuss]

Datzyuk going to miss the first five months of the season with an injury.

Who owns him now?

Father Time

On the Detroit board there is some speculation that hr may take the year off. Some believe he may even retire. I also have no idea who father time is. I'll just check fantrax to see later if im still curious.

retirement? this is the first time I see it mentioned. Considering the source it's not worrisome I guess.

5 months were supposed to be from the date of the surgery btw, so November seems the ETA, rather than February or March.

[lightupdadarkness]

Datzyuk going to miss the first five months of the season with an injury.

Who owns him now?

Father Time

On the Detroit board there is some speculation that hr may take the year off. Some believe he may even retire. I also have no idea who father time is. I'll just check fantrax to see later if im still curious.

retirement? this is the first time I see it mentioned. Considering the source it's not worrisome I guess.

5 months were supposed to be from the date of the surgery btw, so November seems the ETA, rather than February or March.

Ouch if so that's a 35+ contract so would be on the books even if he does retire