How lucky is your team?

[Mike]

I've taken a look at the relative difference between BBKL teams' actual records and "breakdown" records, which accumulate all the points a team would earn had they played against every team every week. The higher your column (STL, DAL, VAN) the luckier your team is. The lower your column (NYI, ATL, WSH), the opposite applies.



If you would like to see how much luckier one team is than the other use this formula:

Team 1's Z value - Team 2's Z value = A
A / Team 1's Z = B
B * 100 = C

C is the difference in luck between Team 1 and Team 2. Example, St. Louis and NY Islanders:

3.833 - 3.048 = 0.785
0.785 / 3.833 = 0.2048004174276024
0.242520518930368 * 100 = 20.48004174276024

So, St. Louis was 20% luckier than NY Islanders. Obviously this formula doesn't account for injuries or player acquisitions.

Edit: updated STL's numbers.

[Shep]

So what you're saying is that I have the best team in the history of hockey.

In other words, I basically would play teams in their "hot" weeks, which raped me.

[inferno31]

Thats pretty awesome.
Nicely done.

[Mike]

Edit: I fucked up with STL and VAN. Fuck. Need to fix that.

[Mike]

Hah for some reason I gave STL 318 points instead of the 426 he deserved.... yeah you were way luckier than appears. Will fix that.

[Shep]

Hah for some reason I gave STL 318 points instead of the 426 he deserved.... yeah you were way luckier than appears. Will fix that.

Yeah, I knew I was the luckiest team in the league.

[Mike]

Thats pretty awesome.
Nicely done.

Cheers buddy. I probably spent more time figuring out all the teams' colours than anything

[Mike]

Fixed. There are probably a few other mistakes because I'm lazy and don't check my work.

[inferno31]

More unlucky teams in the East it seems.
Calgary and me were the two unluckiest in the west but still did better then a lot of east teams.

[Shep]

lol unreal..

[MSP4LYFE]

It would appear that I am fortunes bitch.

[inferno31]

It would appear that I am fortunes bitch.

Kinda expected, just now we have the stats to back it up.

[MSP4LYFE]

It would appear that I am fortunes bitch.

Kinda expected, just now we have the stats to back it up.

LOL, the science is finally catching up to our misfortunes.

[Mash]

so basically what your saying is:

[Mash]

thats okay mike...I dig nerds <3 lmaooo

[MSP4LYFE]

Also, fantastic job Mike...Really like the color scheme (no homo).

[Mike]

Also, fantastic job Mike...Really like the color scheme (no homo).

Ty, and thanks for the idea in the first place.

[Tony]

I'm the most unlucky ... heh. Story of my life ...

[Nick]

Injuries and unexpected slumps are definitely part of luck as well, but Mike was very clear in regards to schedule luck.


I'd actually have guessed I'd be higher then I am... would it be easy to check your luck as a function of time (weeks) ? NVM I thought about the amount of data entry that would require...

[MSP4LYFE]

Injuries and unexpected slumps are definitely part of luck as well, but Mike was very clear in regards to schedule luck.


I'd actually have guessed I'd be higher then I am... would it be easy to check your luck as a function of time (weeks) ? NVM I thought about the amount of data entry that would require...

I agree with everything said, except for unexpected slumps. That happens to the best players in the game, over the course of the season it tends to average out for everyone, I don't think you can attribute it to luck over the course of a season, definitely over specific weeks though.