2021 Draft Discussion

[Shoalzie]

When we do our draft before they do theirs...you pick guys with an expectation in mind but it's a leap of faith because we don't know which team will take them, when they will take them or if they are even taken at all.

If you pick a guy in the first round and they don't go in the first round, is it a bad pick? We as a fantasy league value things different than an NHL draft does when they actually have to develop these players. Not every draft prospect is going to be fantasy relevant. In fact, a good portion of these guys won't amount to much. You don't want to miss on early round picks but the middle and late rounds...your hit rate will vary.

[koomzzz]

koomz with a huge nerd statement there

[Shoalzie]

One more example, Boucher went 59th, Duke went 56th. In the NHL they went 10th and 126. I like Duke, I traded into the 2nd round in ADHL to take him 55th. I still think he has a chance to be an NHL player and one year from today after their D+1 seasons Duke could look like the better prospect. Right now Boucher has a lot more value than Duke if he was traded based on draft position in my mind and I think most GMs would agree.

If Boucher was traded for a 2022 2nd today, I think people would think it was a bad trade for the 10th overall pick. I'd take a do over and accept a 2022 2nd for Duke in ADHL if anyone wanted him for that. I also don't think Duke will go before Boucher in any fantasy league draft where they draft after the NHL draft.

Boucher is the name that game to mind when it comes reacting to where they are taken compared where we took them or where they were rated. Is Boucher a bon-a-fide first round talent or is he just a guy that happened to be taken in the first round? Essentially, would every NHL franchise pick him at that exact spot?

Are we gauging value based on where one of our teams picked a player and where exactly the player was taken in the NHL draft? We can't just say the player who happened to go 75th overall is actually the 75th best player in the draft. It really all depends on which team at that spot happens to value a particular player. Not everyone's top 50 or 100 players are going to be the same.

In the case of Boucher, it just takes one team to put a first round grade on them but does that mean they're a unanimous first rounder?

[Matthew]

Yes, if a guy goes 10th overall in the NHL draft, then when it comes to trading a player in our league, all GMs will look at the player as a 1st rounder...

Regardless of whether you think he has a great NHL career or not, he has 10th overall trade value. If someone wants to trade me Boucher for a 2nd, and I don't think he is gonna make the NHL, I'll flip him to one of our 31 other GMs who think he's worth a top 20 pick. And there will definitely be 1.

Not even sure why that's a discussion. Elementary school fantasy shit.

[Shoalzie]

I don't get the obsession with what position your prospect is picked at. Always a possibility a team overvalued the player and took them too early and not every NHL franchise values the prospect the same way. I'm happy just for the guy to be selected and I'm more intrigued by which organization they're a part of it. If they're a defenseman...how many other quality defensemen are they competing with in their organization?

It's really the only concrete measurable we can use. It functionally means nothing, but it's a means to associate a number to gauge performance, I suppose.

In the end, a player's stat line is what matters for what we do. If you want to obsess over height or hockey sense or skating ability or leadership...those measurables or skills that can keep a guy on a roster but value to us is can this player put up numbers no matter where they were drafted?

Bottom line, a player getting drafted is at least on their way to maybe becoming a pro. The draft is for us to figure out who are the future pros in the group.

[dave1959]

it's a crap shoot, no matter.

[Bruyns]

Yes, if a guy goes 10th overall in the NHL draft, then when it comes to trading a player in our league, all GMs will look at the player as a 1st rounder...

Regardless of whether you think he has a great NHL career or not, he has 10th overall trade value. If someone wants to trade me Boucher for a 2nd, and I don't think he is gonna make the NHL, I'll flip him to one of our 31 other GMs who think he's worth a top 20 pick. And there will definitely be 1.

Not even sure why that's a discussion. Elementary school fantasy shit.

Agreed, I’m not saying higher draft slot means they are a better future player, it’s that as of today Boucher has more trade value than 59th overall. Draft position affects trade value is a pretty black and white statement. There’s exceptions to the rule where late picks become NHLers but I’m talking in general terms.

[Shoalzie]

Wallstedt going later than Cossa...it doesn't mean Cossa is the #1 goalie in the draft. It might just be a case of Detroit valued him more and in the end, that's how teams "get their guy".

Where a guy is drafted in our league or in the NHL is not consensus opinion of where that player is rated. Boucher going in the first just means one team really liked the player. It's not to say more than one team wouldn't agree with that ranking but it just takes one team to really like a player to take them at a certain spot.

[Bruyns]

Wallstedt going later than Cossa...it doesn't mean Cossa is the #1 goalie in the draft. It might just be a case of Detroit valued him more and in the end, that's how teams "get their guy".

Where a guy is drafted in our league or in the NHL is not consensus opinion of where that player is rated. Boucher going in the first just means one team really liked the player. It's not to say more than one team wouldn't agree with that ranking but it just takes one team to really like a player to take them at a certain spot.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with anything you are saying here.

"I don't get the obsession with what position your prospect is picked at" This made it sound like you don't think draft position affects BBKL value. Do you not agree that Chinakhov has more value after going in the first then when he was taken in the 6th in 2019 and went undrafted?

[Shoalzie]

When we draft before the NHL, there's always a chance that a player that one of us takes goes way earlier than how we evaluated them.

Every player we draft becomes more valuable once you have the NHL draft position and team attached to the player. I think you just want that validation by an NHL club that they think of a player enough to draft them.

I look at my draft for instance...my 3rd rounder (Voit) goes in the 5th, all three of my 4th rounders go in the 6th and then my 5th rounder (Kyle Masters) ends up being picked in the 4th as the earliest pick of all my 2021 draftees. What does it mean? Is Masters really my best player in this draft? No idea...maybe Minnesota just likes the player.

It's fun to speculate this stuff but draft position is just a data point you can use as a measure but everyone is still going to evaluate these prospects different than others...especially players in those middle and later rounds.

[Sensfanjosh]

It really only matters for trade value/negotiations, if you pick players to keep and develop because you think they are good then the real draft doesnt matter so much

[kimmer]

shoalzie super passionate all of a sudden
yea i feel like spamming

[Bruyns]

When we draft before the NHL, there's always a chance that a player that one of us takes goes way earlier than how we evaluated them.

Every player we draft becomes more valuable once you have the NHL draft position and team attached to the player. I think you just want that validation by an NHL club that they think of a player enough to draft them.

I look at my draft for instance...my 3rd rounder (Voit) goes in the 5th, all three of my 4th rounders go in the 6th and then my 5th rounder (Kyle Masters) ends up being picked in the 4th as the earliest pick of all my 2021 draftees. What does it mean? Is Masters really my best player in this draft? No idea...maybe Minnesota just likes the player.

It's fun to speculate this stuff but draft position is just a data point you can use as a measure but everyone is still going to evaluate these prospects different than others...especially players in those middle and later rounds.

You avoided my question if you see Chinakhov having more value as a 1st rounder compared to an undrafted 6th rounder.

A guy going in the 4th, 5th or 6th I agree is pretty inconsequential, no one is going to give much value to those guys until they break out and prove something. For your picks they are all mid-rounders of pretty much equal value, might have lost a bit of value on Voit, but he is a Leaf now so that offsets that since if he puts up a good offensive season one of our crazy fans will overvalue him.

The part I'm trying to understand if you agree with is do you not feel like draft position affects trade value? If some team went off the board and took Masters 15th overall do you not feel like he would have more trade value if you decided to trade him today?

[Bruyns]

It really only matters for trade value/negotiations, if you pick players to keep and develop because you think they are good then the real draft doesnt matter so much

I agree with this as well, I kept Cirelli and he was worth way more than the 5th rounder I used on him. He also wouldn't have been worth a 2nd the day after the draft and I'm solely talking trade value as of this point in time which is helped when drafted high and hurt if undrafted/drafted way later.

[Shoalzie]

You avoided my question if you see Chinakhov having more value as a 1st rounder compared to an undrafted 6th rounder.

Of course it matters because his right are now owned an NHL organization. Is it a bonus that he's a 1st rounder? I guess it depends on who you ask.

I've hung onto (NHL undrafted) prospects with the hopes they eventually get drafted or in the case Pius Suter, eventually sign a pro contract. Any prospect drafted or not has a chance of having value in this league. Of course the player doesn't have a lot of value until an NHL team takes a shot at them.

[Matthew]

You avoided my question if you see Chinakhov having more value as a 1st rounder compared to an undrafted 6th rounder.

Of course it matters because his right are now owned an NHL organization. Is it a bonus that he's a 1st rounder? I guess it depends on who you ask.

I've hung onto (NHL undrafted) prospects with the hopes they eventually get drafted or in the case Pius Suter, eventually sign a pro contract. Any prospect drafted or not has a chance of having value in this league. Of course, the player doesn't have a lot of value until an NHL team takes a shot at them.

Lol.

[Bruyns]

You avoided my question if you see Chinakhov having more value as a 1st rounder compared to an undrafted 6th rounder.

Of course it matters because his right are now owned an NHL organization. Is it a bonus that he's a 1st rounder? I guess it depends on who you ask.

I've hung onto (NHL undrafted) prospects with the hopes they eventually get drafted or in the case Pius Suter, eventually sign a pro contract. Any prospect drafted or not has a chance of having value in this league. Of course the player doesn't have a lot of value until an NHL team takes a shot at them.

OK I give up haha, seems like you genuinely believe that Chinakhov's value didn't go up after he became a 1st rounder and it was only a bonus depending who you ask.

I have never said late picks or undrafted players can't potentially have value in the future, but not recognizing that a 1st round pick carries more BBKL value than a 7th round pick days after the draft is not something I can engage in a debate over.

[Shoalzie]

OK I give up haha, seems like you genuinely believe that Chinakhov's value didn't go up after he became a 1st rounder and it was only a bonus depending who you ask.

I have never said late picks or undrafted players can't potentially have value in the future, but not recognizing that a 1st round pick carries more BBKL value than a 7th round pick days after the draft is not something I can engage in a debate over.

A player being drafted into the NHL in the first place gives them value. Draft position assigns expectations.

What I don't understand is that Player X gets picked 70th in the BBKL and then gets picked 55th in the NHL...is that player somehow better or more valuable? Some times being drafted later in a round means you up with a better organization and perhaps there's a better chance of reaching full potential.

To me, the draft position is a superficial thing that loses value as time goes on. After 3 or 4 years of development...are we going to still obsess over which round a player was taken or are we going to look at where the player actually is in their development?

Granted, if you spent a high draft pick on a guy and at best the player is a 3rd liner...was that a bad pick or just a bad return for a 1st round pick?

Just because he was taken 1st overall, is it possible the best player in this draft isn't named Owen Power?

[Brian]

I completely understand what you're saying, Shoalzie. NHL draft position means nothing regarding a player's actual talent, NHL potential and ultimate fantasy value.

That said, in the interim period between the draft and the time a prospect graduates, actual NHL ability is unknown. Junior/minor/Euro stats help tell part of the tale, but the size of the bet that an NHL team placed on player is another input. But that's it. An input. I think a player that was generally regarded as a late-second/early third but goes in the first round in the NHL will see his fantasy value increase during that interim period. For example, Olen Zellweger as basically mid-40s in the publications, but drafted 34th. I think his value increased. But I don't think anyone in this league or others would give me an early second for Ryker Evans right now just because an NHL team drafted him at 35. Those two D were drafted one spot away from each other, but I know I'd be far more likely to get a better return on Zellweger than Evans if I tried to trade them right now. But it certainly doesn't hurt Evans value that he was drafted 35th.

[Shoalzie]

I get that, Brian...when we have some players with fewer games under their belt than normal...how else are you going to measure "value"? Especially this soon after the draft just happened.

If there's a draft class where it's worth hanging onto players a little longer than normal, it would be this class given some of the uncertainty and the varying opinions on the prospects. If you trade someone now...what else could you use to evaluate the player's value?

In a vacuum, I'm always fascinated by the team that drafts the player and I care about the playing situation of the prospect. Are they playing on a bad junior team but is producing with a lack of a supporting cast? Are they part of a powerhouse where they could just be a product of their team? Are they playing for an NCAA program that has a tendency to produce pros?

We all have difficult things we value over others.