Buds Board Keepers League

You are mistaken.

Nick wroteCOLONYou are mistaken.

I am 200% sure that you are lol.

But fair enough. Let's return to the topic at hand.

SuperMario wroteCOLON
This is terrible terrible analysis. I'm shocked that you're a stat major and making this argument. .

Dude, can you ever not make an arguement personal? Take a moment on occasion, step back and ask if that comment is insulting the person and is outside the arguement. I'm actually shocked and would be surprised if anyone takes a loud mouth idiot like yourself seriously, but i don't say that after everytime you post.

SuperMario wroteCOLON
First - when you and I begin any game week, each category has a probability. For example, let's say you have an edge in PIMS, the odds of you winning the category that week are say 60%, mine are 35%, 5% chance of a tie (making these numbers up). Over 10 weeks - the split on the PIMS category should technically be 6-3-1 or 6-4-0 in your favour. The same goes for every category.

Second - the distribution of these categories does not "need" to happen as equally every week. That is, if you are a 60% favourite on the 12 skater categories, you do not need to win 7-8 categories every week. You do however at the end of the 10 weeks need to be close to the 60% mark of the 12 categories. So some weeks you may lose 8 out of 12. But you should win 7-9 in others to make up the difference.

Best way I can sum up the mistake you are doing is what I've already posted:

It's the equivalent of you flipping a coin 1000 times then segmenting the results into groups of 10. Then saying that Heads won more groups of 10 than Tails even though the total distribution was 50%.

The only logical argument you can make is that the sample size was smaller this season than the usual 25 weeks.

Shiv, last year you won more categories against me (some others as well, not just you) yet all (save one, kyle or mike iirc) had a losing weekly record against me. Magnitude of wins, not # of wins. You're making propability projections that this would repeat, sure... it would, when you win, you win by more than when I win by, this is the very nature of how we've built our teams. you try to win basically every category, I try to win 9 and give away the others, so in the weeks you 'steal' a few of mine, you win by a lot, yet in the more common outcome, wherein i win my categories, i win the week. hence, if our standings were based on wins, rather than magnitide of the wins, our final standings would be different.

So how about those Blue Jays eh?

Nick wroteCOLON

SuperMario wroteCOLON
This is terrible terrible analysis. I'm shocked that you're a stat major and making this argument. .

Dude, can you ever not make an arguement personal? Take a moment on occasion, step back and ask if that comment is insulting the person and is outside the arguement. I'm actually shocked and would be surprised if anyone takes a loud mouth idiot like yourself seriously, but i don't say that after everytime you post.

I was pointing out how a person with an education in statistics can make such a stupid argument and provide such bad analysis. Your response above was personal (to which I won't respond).

As far as your post after that, your analysis is so wrong that it isn't even worth addressing anymore. It is obvious to any observer that you are caught in a vicious circle of trying to prove your point.

But like I said, let's move on.

lol

what's the vote at here?

7 yes. 5 no, 1 maybe/dont care?

that's why there should be a poll.

yes

or

no



none of this I dont care or meh stuff. IMO at least.

Big Fun wroteCOLONwhat's the vote at here?

7 yes. 5 no, 1 maybe/dont care?

Doesn't matter. I've seen no indication from the CC that this will be brought up.

SuperMario wroteCOLON

Big Fun wroteCOLONwhat's the vote at here?

7 yes. 5 no, 1 maybe/dont care?

Doesn't matter. I've seen no indication from the CC that this will be brought up.

it will get brought up in the CC - by me, when i have time, maybe this weekend..

that said, if this did pass, the change woudln't take place until next season IMO.

CC thread started.

Just for making me read through all this bullshit, I vote NO. P.S best thing about this thread is Anton various creatures.

Was randomly skimming threads, saw an argument between Shiv and Nick figured it'd be something good. Well thanks for wasting my time you fuckers.

On the topic at hand of adding PPTOI I obviously have nothing to gain one way or another but figure I'd add a few thoughts

• I'd be incredibly hesitant to ever add or take away a category in a keeper league, wouldn't even consider it unless there was a few months notice and a majority vote, but just re-read first post seems like this is a talk for 14-15 so all good.
• Adding PPTOI I feel isn't really a measure that's incredibly useful. It functions the same way SHTOI works in that it isn't really an accurate measure of anything as it varies greatly depending on the depth of a team, injuries etc. but doesn't evaluate the skill of a player. SHTOI is counted because its trying to reward a position that is traditionally undervalued and we don't have anything better. Not sure I'd support the same argument for PPTOI.
• I haven't read the whole thread but is the argument that offensive players are undervalued? PPTOI is a solution I suppose but any thought given to changing weight of categories, like points being worth 2 instead etc? Just an idea.
• On the last point, I don't see why rewarding special team status yet again is really of any benefit. Playing on the powerplay already gets you STPTS + regular offensive categories, I don't see any benefit of punishing essentially the player who scores more at regular strength at this point. Yeah I understand most offensive players play more on the powerplay, but you'd create an even larger artificial gap between even strength point getters (arguably a more difficult task) and powerplay specialists. I'd rather see a different way to reward offensive players as a whole
• On the topic of Nick's comment on building a team based on offensive categories only, it's certainly interesting. In a keeper league I totally see the logic as I think the offensive stats are much more repeatable year to year than some of the other categories we use. I wonder how many people in this league track Shooting % and things like PDO
• On the topic of total wins vs magnitude of wins. A h2h league even in full season can never use total week wins for really anything, the magnitude of error introduced by scheduling would be too large to ever overcome, we'd simply never get a good enough sample size.

^^^^^clap clap...

Nicely summerized Neel.