Draft Picks and there value.

[armandtanzarian]

I got curious on the odds of drafted players actually making the NHL. Only because when people laugh at you for offering full time roster players for late 2nds or 3rds i had to wonder.

Question: How Many NHL Draft Picks Make it to the NHL?

Over 200 players are selected at every NHL draft. How many of them go on to have NHL careers? What are the prospects for a player selected in the first round of the NHL Draft compared to later rounds?
Answer: To properly evaluate a draft, you need a few year's distance from it. So let's look at the 1990s.

To define whether a player "makes it," let's set the threshold at 200 NHL games. We'll call them "career players."

Between 1990 and 1999, there were 2,600 names called at the NHL Entry Draft.

As of 2007, 494 of those players have appeared in at least 200 NHL games. That's a success rate of 19 percent.

But of course, not all draft picks are created equal. The guys picked in the first round are a cut above the rest:

Success rate of first-round draft picks

# Of the 494 career players drafted in the 1990s, 160 were selected in the first round.
# Of those 160 career players, over half have played more than 500 NHL games.
# Among the older players (those drafted from 1990 to 1994), six first-round picks have made it to 1,000 games. Another couple of dozen are still active and within reach of 1,000.
# Based on the 1990s sample, a first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of being a career player.

Results can vary widely from year to year:
# The 1993 NHL Draft produced 22 career players from 26 first-round picks.
# In 1999, less than half of the first-round selections went on to become career players (12 out of 28).

Beyond the first round.

This is where the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:
# From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round turned into NHL career players.

Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it.
# From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.

[MSP4LYFE]

Yep...apparently Arians 2nd rounders are untouchable...it's funny how stupid some of the people on this site are, it really is...

[Nick]

the asking on these 2nd's if fucking insanity....


teams lacking assets and piece of interest being offered notably more proven pieces are retards for not turning them into something more then a 2nd rounder...LOL... but that would mean doing some checking up on guys to target...

[MSP4LYFE]

the asking on these 2nd's if fucking insanity....


teams lacking assets and piece of interest being offered notably more proven pieces are retards for not turning them into something more then a 2nd rounder...LOL... but that would mean doing some checking up on guys to target...

I'm genuinely emberassed for some people...There is a reason certain teams are epic, and others fucking suck, heres reason 1...

[armandtanzarian]

Yea, i never posted this to slam anyone but man oh man, some people have to give there head a shake. When they are dressing players that may or may not even play in the NHL on there full time roster and they are offered proven players with value for a late 2nd early 3rd and laugh at you, i guess you have to consider that they do not understand the final goal of any fantasy league, eventually you need to try and win. Plus, our games played rules are and will be harsh for offenders. The teams that gave away roster players for 5th rounders really regretted it (including me). I wont make that mistake again. I will bury players in my minors and never use them instead of trading them away for 4th and 5th round picks. What are the odds that a player drafted in the 5th-7th round ever sees the NHL? don't think shes very good...people have to think about that shit..

[Nick]

or people's insane asking for shuffling a few spots.... they need to check real value... if you picking a guy @ 40 who will be there @ 45... fucking move back and don't ask for #50 to move back... ask to move forward 10 spots a little later.

[MSP4LYFE]

or people's insane asking for shuffling a few spots.... they need to check real value... if you picking a guy @ 40 who will be there @ 45... fucking move back and don't ask for #50 to move back... ask to move forward 10 spots a little later.

HAHAHAHA, this is why I love Nick, he will never name names like I do, but he puts in such a way that you would have to be an idiot not to know who he's reffering too, lol.

[Arian The Insider]

Yep...apparently Arians 2nd rounders are untouchable...it's funny how stupid some of the people on this site are, it really is...

I didn't like any of the guys you offered.. i'd rather draft guys i like.

[MSP4LYFE]

Yep...apparently Arians 2nd rounders are untouchable...it's funny how stupid some of the people on this site are, it really is...

I didn't like any of the guys you offered.. i'd rather draft guys i like.

Fair

[Florida Chris]

Draft Smaft, I never understood the value of picks in our league, when up until about now, we could just go claim a player who has just a good if not a better chance on making the NHL (outside of 1st rounder). That was my plan from day 1, when I realized after we protected our original 30, that every other prospect was free for the taking.

I traded most of my picks, and filled my roster with guys on not claimed yet. So far its worked. However pretty much all the available prospects not on a team now suck, so I believe that in 2012 the entry level picks will be worth alot more...Hence why I never traded any yet.

[The BBKL Insider]

the asking on these 2nd's if fucking insanity....


teams lacking assets and piece of interest being offered notably more proven pieces are retards for not turning them into something more then a 2nd rounder...LOL... but that would mean doing some checking up on guys to target...

I'm genuinely emberassed for some people...There is a reason certain teams are epic, and others fucking suck, heres reason 1...

I'm by no means shopping Mueller, but i guess his value is a mid 2nd rd pick.

talk about over value eh, it fucking makes me sick.

[Shep]

I have 30 roster players and nobody wants them for picks.

Picks > Prospects in Juniors > Prospects in AHL > NHL Rookies > NHL vets

[MSP4LYFE]

I have 30 roster players and nobody wants them for picks.

Picks > Prospects in Juniors > Prospects in AHL > NHL Rookies > NHL vets

It's based on the time of year more than anything, once the season starts roster players will be worth a ton, and picks will be expenable.

[Robin Hood]

i am by no means disagreeing with anyone here but i wanna say this:

if a gm has 10-15 picks in the first two rounds and he is rebuilding. if his team is shit and has NO hope of competing because even if he gains a particular roster player, then i can see the argument both ways in the sense that they are hoping to compete in 5-6 years (hong is an example of this. lately he's done a good job of managing picks vs his active roster).

that being said there is a HUGE problem with the perception of good prospects even. certain teams rejects SOLID proven players simply because they are over 30. i'll take a proven 31 year old who produces/has produced 80+ points and will continue to do so for years ANY day.

[The BBKL Insider]

like Kareem said, its the time of the year

nothing else going on, minus well oversell draft picks during the draft...lol

[Scott]

And everyone wondered why I was trading my picks/prospects for contributing NHLers when BBKL first began.. lol.. then I used to the vets/NHLers to my advantage when the season was about to begin.. the plan worked out beautifully.

[Robin Hood]

btw in light of kyles post here, i just want to point out how much more amazing players like datsyuk/zetterberg become from 1) a scouting standpoint and 2) a development standpoint.

[jcarton]

This is why i have no picks at the moment until the 4th round i do believe lol, i should have started from 7th and go from there

[hong57]

i am by no means disagreeing with anyone here but i wanna say this:

if a gm has 10-15 picks in the first two rounds and he is rebuilding. if his team is shit and has NO hope of competing because even if he gains a particular roster player, then i can see the argument both ways in the sense that they are hoping to compete in 5-6 years (hong is an example of this. lately he's done a good job of managing picks vs his active roster).

that being said there is a HUGE problem with the perception of good prospects even. certain teams rejects SOLID proven players simply because they are over 30. i'll take a proven 31 year old who produces/has produced 80+ points and will continue to do so for years ANY day.

if it takes 5-6 years i would cry haha.. means 90% of my prospects are bust!.. im hoping in 2-3 years to be real competitive..
and now a question.. if a guy is 100% in future would become a clone of
- Darcy Tucker
- Hal Gill
- Tim Connolly
where would teams have pick them?

[Nick]

if they knew 100% to be those players? they'd all be top 15. likely top 5.