Your Prospects and the odds they make the NHL

[bills09]

No

Don't be scared. Everyone is so confident in there players when trade talks are going on, stand behind your boys and put up some numbers so everyone can either agree with you or bash you...I'll start

Tim Sestito - undrafted - 90%
Alex Friesen - 6th - 30%
Rob Bordson - undrafted - 40%
Michael Haley - undrafted - 70%
Jeremy Colliton - 2nd - 60%
Ryan Spooner - 2nd - 85%
Jordan Caron - 1st - 95%



I got too many. i'll finish later...

Prospects suck gimme Caron and Spooner

[armandtanzarian]

lol. mine actually do. I have basically 2 of them and i know there value only because they are in the Bruins system.

Mike, Never thought about it. I guess anybody you want to post that is not on your active roster. Either way its a good thread to get some comical back and forths going. Keep on keeping on Chris. I would like to see your final results. Pretty telling stuff.

[Mike]

Mike, Never thought about it. I guess anybody you want to post that is not on your active roster. Either way its a good thread to get some comical back and forths going. Keep on keeping on Chris. I would like to see your final results. Pretty telling stuff.

NHL Experience
Jeff Skinner - 99% (82 GP + ROY, he could die before playing 18 more games)
Mikkel Boedker - 100% (over 100GP)
Ryan O'Reilly - 100% (over 100GP)
Linus Omark - 98% (51GP)
Kevin Porter - 100% (over 100GP)
Dana Tyrell - 99% (78GP)
Drayson Bowman - 90% (32GP)
Andreas Nodl - 100% (over 100GP)
Viktor Tikhonov - 80% (61GP)
Brandon Yip - 100% (over 100GP)
Erik Condra - 80% (26GP + 2 year 1-way deal on a shitty team)
Jiri Tlusty - 100% (over 100GP)
Brad Marchand - 99% (97GP)
Karl Alzner - 100% (over 100GP)
Grant Clitsome - 95% (42GP after breakout season, 5% margin for regression or injury)
Mike Weber - 99% (81GP)
Jonathan Blum - 98% (23GP)
Jake Muzzin - 50% (11GP)
Matt Lashoff - 60% (74GP, only 26 to go)

No NHL Experience
Sean Couturier - 90%
Quinton Howden - 65%
Matt Puempel - 65%
Alan Quine - 25%
Jake Gardiner - 75%
Mark Pysyk - 65%
Yuri Alexandrov - 40%
Chet Pickard - 10%
Mark Visentin - 70%
Dennis Endras - 20%
Leland Irving - 75%
Jeff Zatkoff - 10%

[armandtanzarian]

You got some studs there Mike...

[armandtanzarian]

I'll finish mine

Trukhno, Slava - 20%
Gionta, Steven - 75%
Marquardt, Matt - 30%
Darche, Mathieu - 100%
Bishop, Hunter - 50%
Pettersen, Fredrik - 50%
Keller, Ryan - 60%
Jeff, LoVecchio - 40%
Wallace, Tim - 55%
Crabb, Joey - 100%
Cracknell, Adam - 75%
Abney, Cameron - 40%
Randell, Tyler - 30%
Krejci, Daniel - 50%
Vernace, Mike - 70%
Spurgeon, Jared - 100%
Carson, Brett - 85%
Nikitin, Nikita - 95%
Penner, Jeff - 45%

[Shep]

Dazer Kaboot 101%

[Lee]

Byron Froese - 65
Marek Viedensky - 75
Jamie Arniel- 85
Greg Nemisz - 80 - 1 NHL game
Kaspars Daugavins - 50 - 1 nhl game
Chase Polacek - 30
Blake Coleman - 69
Tony Cameranesi - 50

Ryan Bourque - 70
Craig Cunningham - 77
Brent Raedeke - 30
Brandon Kozun- 93
Francois Bouchard- 40
John McCarthy - 78 - 41 nhl games
Levko Koper - 20
Brendan Ranford - 65
Josh Shalla - 65
Brendan Gallagher - 80
Josh Nicholls - 85
Ondrej Palat - 82

Ryan Button - 68
Philip Samuelsson - 70
Brett Ponich - 95
Derek Joslin - 97 - 70 nhl games
Michael Stone - 65
Mark Cundari - 85
Brandon Manning - 95
Mark Mitera - 94
Korbanian Holzer - 70
Austin Levi - 69
William Wrenn - 85
Brenden Kichton - 90
Max Everson - 79
Henrik Tömmernes - 74
Alexi Marchenko - 100 - Drafted by Detroit - Next Lidstrom

Edward Pasquale - 77
Chris Carrozzi - like 5
Cedrick Desjardins - 100 - complete faith, even before the 2 lights out games, that he will be a stater before the end of the 2011/2012 season
Fredrik Pettersson - Wentzel - 80
Jason Kasdorf - 5
Mac Carruth - 90
Alex Kangas - 0

[armandtanzarian]

i need more players...lol

[anton]

i tend to ere on the side of caution with my %s but:

1. oscar klefbom - 1st: 90%
2. zack phillips - 1st: 80%
3. jesse blacker - 2nd: 85%
4. stephane da costa - college FA: 75%
5. brad ross - 2nd: 70%
6. casey wellman - college FA: 75%
7. matt halischuk - 4th: 95% (47gp already)

[Scott]

Potential of reaching 100 games in the NHL or as follows:

Evgeny Grachev (3rd round 2008) - 70%
Jared Knight (2nd round 2010) - 70%
Mark McNeill (1st round 2011) - 85%
Colin Jacobs (4th round 2011) - 55%
Kyle Rau (3rd round 2011) - 60%
Jordan Schroeder (1st round 2009) - 75%
Nick Shore (3rd round 2011) - 65%
Craig Smith (4th round 2009) - 75%
Philip Varone (5th round 2009) - 50%
Jimmy Hayes (2nd round 2008) - 60%
Garrett Wilson (4th round 2009) - 65%
Jerry D'amigo (6th round 2009) - 60%
Nikita Kucherov (2nd round 2011) - 90%
Ty Rattie (2nd round 2011) - 70%
Christian Thomas (2nd round 2010) - 75%
Linden Vey (4th round 2009) - 70%
Tyson Barrie (3rd round 2009) - 75%
Joel Chouinard (6th round 2008) - 50%
Tony DeHart (5th round 2010) - 50%
Nicolas Deslauriers (3rd round 2009) - 70%
Josiah Didier (5th round 2011) - 50%
Joel Edmundson (2nd round 2011) - 65%
Scott Harrington (2nd round 2011) - 75%
Brian Lashoff (undrafted) - 35%
Reid McNeill (6th round 2010) - 55%
Kevin Montgomery (4th round 2006) - 40%
Matt Pelech (1st round 2005) - 50%
Jarred Tinordi (1st round 2010) - 80%
Scott Valentine (6th round 2009) - 55%
Matt Irwin (undrafted) - 50%
Gustaf Wesslau (undrafted) - 25%
Michael Hutchinson (3rd round 2008) - 50%
Michael Houser (undrafted) - 50%

[Shep]

You guys are all way too generous

[armandtanzarian]

lol. Some solid prospects listed so far though. I wonder how many people are ready to retire in the next couple of years to make room for the overwhelming success rate that is coming, me included...

[Scott]

You guys are all way too generous

Well, I feel any prospect has a 50% shot that's been drafted within the last 3 years.. that was my starting point.

[inferno31]

You guys are all way too generous

Well, I feel any prospect has a 50% shot that's been drafted within the last 3 years.. that was my starting point.

Theres 305 new NHLers a year?

Unrelated, but props to people who follow college sports because though it seems ridiculous thats the kind of real turnover they have.

[Scott]

You guys are all way too generous

Well, I feel any prospect has a 50% shot that's been drafted within the last 3 years.. that was my starting point.

Theres 305 new NHLers a year?

Unrelated, but props to people who follow college sports because though it seems ridiculous thats the kind of real turnover they have.

Nothing to do with numbers.. once a kid's drafted, it's on him to put the work in. I think anyone who had their named called during the draft has a 50/50 chance of making it..

[fedro91]

You guys are all way too generous

Well, I feel any prospect has a 50% shot that's been drafted within the last 3 years.. that was my starting point.

Theres 305 new NHLers a year?

Unrelated, but props to people who follow college sports because though it seems ridiculous thats the kind of real turnover they have.

Nothing to do with numbers.. once a kid's drafted, it's on him to put the work in. I think anyone who had their named called during the draft has a 50/50 chance of making it..

True but I feel the team can fuck a prospect career by giving them too much responsibility soo early on. I feel there some organization I wouldn't want to get drafted by since there horrible at getting there prospect to the nhl like Minny and Atlanta to name a few.

[Nick]

When checking for the average # of GP (especially for first and second round) I'd call this a seriously skewed data set, the 'mean' actually tells you very little, if anything, ditto on the median or mode. A graph of GP would be neat to look at, kinda easier to see if a best fit line is really worth your time or not, a zero and a 1600 average to a 800, but it's useless right??


I believe a dichotomy of sub 80 Vs over 160 would begin to tell you more. That's a reasonably safe gap of never really made it, to played for at least 2 seasons. Doesn't measure success, but it points to sticking around. really need to break down by position and role... And even then, what does it tell you? Some measure for TOI in prime would begin to be something you can compare players by.

Anyways, odds of reaching 100GP:
(please ignore all spelling, on iPhone waiting)

Sondre Olden - 16.5%
Alex Ruutu - 45% (uncle is head scout)
Landon Ferraro - 50% (early 2nd + dad)
Eric Tangradi - 70%
Luke Adam - 70%
Taylor Hall - 99%
Cam Fowler - 99%
Alec Martinez - 70%
Colby Cohen - 40%
Teemu Laakso - 75%
Nick Bjustad - 66%
Fabiann Brunnstrom - 90%
Brett Bulmer - 50%
Phil Lane - 50%
Mikkia Solimiakia - 45%


Done for now.

[kyuss]

Nick Bjustad - 66%
Fabiann Brunnstrom - 90%
Brett Bulmer - 50%
Phil Lane - 50%
Mikkia Solimiakia - 45%

is that you Frankie?

[Nick]

Nick Bjustad - 66%
Fabiann Brunnstrom - 90%
Brett Bulmer - 50%
Phil Lane - 50%
Mikkia Solimiakia - 45%

is that you Frankie?

funny, except I prefaced the list with:

(please ignore all spelling, on iPhone waiting)

So who is really Frank in this situation? eh? eh?

[kyuss]

Nick Bjustad - 66%
Fabiann Brunnstrom - 90%
Brett Bulmer - 50%
Phil Lane - 50%
Mikkia Solimiakia - 45%

is that you Frankie?

funny, except I prefaced the list with:

(please ignore all spelling, on iPhone waiting)

So who is really Frank in this situation? eh? eh?

ah ah ah, i only read the list..