WSH - DET

[Matthew]

It's also really cool to watch Chuck Norris rebuild. Thru trading back even high end draft picks multiple times, he aggressively expanded his assets quicker than anyone I've ever seen. And it seems his rebuild has gone suuuuuper quickly. He would turn like an 8 overall pick into like 12 prospects including a say 14th overall. Very smart.

[Shoalzie]

He's had two of the largest drafts we've probably had in this league. In 2020, he had 26 picks and had a staggering 33 picks in 2014. Sure, it's great to pick a lot of players you're playing the odds when you're building through the draft. The odds of pulling an NHLer decreases the later in the draft you go. If you're going make 10 picks in a draft and you have only 1st rounder...you have to make that 1st rounder count. If you hit on any of the other picks, that's a bonus.

The teams that make the biggest impact on their rebuilds are the teams with multiple high picks. Late rounders are scratch-off tickets...most of the time you don't win or if you do win, it's maybe a part-time NHLer or a journeyman. You're lucky if you find a Pavelski or a Palat. The early rounds of drafts are vital because those picks have value in this league if you choose to make the pick rather than trade it...that's a big value loss if your selection ends being a bust.

[Bruyns]

Ya Chuck is someone I don't see rebuilding for much longer.

[kyuss]

The early rounds of drafts are vital because those picks have value in this league if you choose to make the pick rather than trade it...that's a big value loss if your selection ends being a bust.

which means any time rebuilders don't care about very good offers for their picks they are taking a risk

[Da_Hawks]

The early rounds of drafts are vital because those picks have value in this league if you choose to make the pick rather than trade it...that's a big value loss if your selection ends being a bust.

which means any time rebuilders don't care about very good offers for their picks they are taking a risk

What would you know about very good offers?

[kyuss]

Remember Marchment? remember Klingberg for a 1st?

just from the last few days..

[Matthew]

Klingberg blows is he even worth a 1st

[Da_Hawks]

Remember Marchment? remember Klingberg for a 1st?

just from the last few days..

You mean people finally catching on to the fact that you can`t afford all these players so you can`t take a Kings ransom for all of them?

[kyuss]

Klingberg blows is he even worth a 1st

I get it, he is no Makar or Seider

[kyuss]

Remember Marchment? remember Klingberg for a 1st?

just from the last few days..

You mean people finally catching on to the fact that you can`t afford all these players so you can`t take a Kings ransom for all of them?

kings ransom? what kings ransom?

[Da_Hawks]

Remember Marchment? remember Klingberg for a 1st?

just from the last few days..

You mean people finally catching on to the fact that you can`t afford all these players so you can`t take a Kings ransom for all of them?

kings ransom? what kings ransom?

You know, when you would extract multiple futures from previous GMs for contracts you needed to shed? It`s a well-known fact...

[Shoalzie]

Using next year as an example...there's at least 3 really good prospects at the top of the draft. If you think you're a "bottom three" team in the league or you're going to be in the lottery range...I think it's foolish to trade that pick unless you're desperate to get assets for the pick.

For a 5-year stretch...I'd been trading away my 1st rounder for established players but I had been a team picking in the later portion of the lottery. If I kept my picks and took the actual player that was selected at my spot...

2021 -- Carson Lambos (12th)
2020 -- Jamie Drysdale (9th)
2019 -- Vasily Podkolzin (10th)
2018 -- Barrett Hayton (13th)
2017 -- Nolan Patrick (2nd)

Bad luck that my pick jumped to 2nd in the lottery but Patrick hasn't exactly turned out as of yet.

You can go further back...I could've had Auston Matthews 1st overall in 2016 but I think I made a good trade (initially). Noah Hanifin was taken with my pick 2015 (3rd overall) but I traded out of that spot to take Sam Bennett the year before after I had already picked Ekblad #1.

I've used the Auston Matthews draft as my fork in the road with my rebuild. I chose to trade the pick rather than take the player...who has obviously turned out to be as good (or better) than advertised.

How good would I be if I just kept all my picks? I don't think I'd be a playoff team but I'd at least be better set up for the long-term since I'd have young players rather than 30+ year old vets with decreasing value.

At this stage, I'll stick with my a lot of my existing roster and hang onto my picks and (hope) I can draft quality guys at the top of each draft. You try to worry about having luck in the lottery on top of it...you're hoping hit a jackpot. You almost need to know how to make good picks when you're picking in the top 5.

I do see a risk to trading away existing players for picks and unless you have a big roster...even if your mission is to build through the draft.

[Da_Hawks]

Have to keep in mind that the more you keep your players, the less you will actually bottom out and get those top picks. Depends on where you are in your process.

For example, I identified last year that my dmen were winning me too many categories, so I had to drop Faulk. I may not have gotten the best value for him, but the trade allowed the new GM to draft Wright due to bottoming out properly. Had I not, maybe I sit around the 5-10 slot where the players are deemed less impactful.

All a crapshoot in the draft, but IMO you need those top picks (and for them to pan out) if you have any chance at flipping them for better assets down the road or leading you to victory themselves.

[Shoalzie]

I was saying to Mik in one of our CC threads...there's an artform to finishing last. You don't necessarily have to carry the 18 worst NHL skaters, you just need a group is just bad enough to lose categories most of the time. Plus, if you can have the absolute worst starting goalie that will get you enough starts...you'll lose but you'll be rule-compliant so you don't get burned by GP.

I looked at my roster last night...I have a decent group of wingers when I add in Marchessault and Atkinson but my only two centers are Wennberg and Colton and I'll be lucky to have 3 or 4 active defensemen without making a trade. I don't have a team that I'd spend assets on to get better. I'm definitely a lottery team.

The whole point of acquiring these other guys is it gives me plenty of depth at wing so hopefully I can move some of these guys and address my other lineup needs.

How bad is my team heading into next season? I'm not going to actively tear my team down to the ground just to lose...I'd rather trade away established players if I get fair value in return or I can address my other roster needs...like at center or defense.

[Da_Hawks]

I agree. I don`t deny that I bitched and moaned about the initial rebuild years bc spending assets on shit players just to hit GP was a new concept to me that did not make any sense, but is logical given there is no free agency. That took some time to wrap my head around, and I would have done a few things differently early on had I taken more time to understand how that works.

Once you get that figured out, and you chart your asset collection gameplan - then you are laughing. It has to be a combination of drafting well, weaponizing cap space+flipping assets for greater returns, and maintaining a gp roster that it just passable.

Like you said Shoalzie, it`s really hard in this league - part of the reason I`d advocate against having a lottery decide who gets the top picks, though the new NHL lottery makes more sense than the previous.

An underappreciated part of the rebuild is the waiver draft. Matthew has gotten some very good players that way, whereas I have very few. If you can grab an NHL'er every year on that end, it'll help tremendously. Underrated draft!

[Matthew]

Agreed about waiver draft. I had a learning curve there of a couple years but once I realized how good waiver draft was vacating mid/late entry picks for players a bit older who were on NHL paths was an easy decision. As well as the free agency immediately following the waiver draft.

Actually looking back now a large percentage of my current prospect pool is from the waiver draft. Most won't be stars but they will be my waiver exempt periph guys and such.

[Chuck Norris]

I'll tell you there's been a few times where I worry that I'd regret trading back like I have in the past. It all comes down to drafting well. A few years back I started tracking which of my picks made the show, which didn't and who didn't get drafted at all. From there I developed skillets I look for at each position when I draft.

Like Shoalzie said I had 33 picks in the 2014 draft and I only had 10 play an NHL game to date with only 2 late round picks that amounted to anything. Fast forward to 2016 draft I went 6 for 11 playing at least 1 NHL game, 2018 6 for 11, 2019 6 for 16 (many are too early to call if they make it). And I'm consistently hitting at least one or two after pick 150 or later. Im very interested in how my 2020 class turns out as compared to my 2014 when i didnt have my positional skill sets identified.

Yeah I'm at the point now where I'm trying to make room for my kids because atm I don't have room for Farabee or Forementon in my roster. I'm expecting to become a contender again in the next year or two so long as my kids keep coming.

[kyuss]

Remember Marchment? remember Klingberg for a 1st?

just from the last few days..

You mean people finally catching on to the fact that you can`t afford all these players so you can`t take a Kings ransom for all of them?

kings ransom? what kings ransom?

You know, when you would extract multiple futures from previous GMs for contracts you needed to shed?

I guess by contract I "needed to shed" you mean star players?

[Shoalzie]

The waiver draft is very underrated but that's a lottery in itself. I've been able to pull NHLers out of it but not often do you find a superstar.

Our waiver draft and free agent claim system is "first come, first serve" so you need to have some luck with the guys you take. A lot of the time, those players don't amount to much. You look at last fall's draft...I pulled Danforth near the end and Shep got Duhaime. The Islanders pulled Logan Thompson the year before. The rest of the draft, they're prospects/AHLers.

[Shoalzie]

I'll tell you there's been a few times where I worry that I'd regret trading back like I have in the past. It all comes down to drafting well. A few years back I started tracking which of my picks made the show, which didn't and who didn't get drafted at all. From there I developed skillets I look for at each position when I draft.

Like Shoalzie said I had 33 picks in the 2014 draft and I only had 10 play an NHL game to date with only 2 late round picks that amounted to anything. Fast forward to 2016 draft I went 6 for 11 playing at least 1 NHL game, 2018 6 for 11, 2019 6 for 16 (many are too early to call if they make it). And I'm consistently hitting at least one or two after pick 150 or later. Im very interested in how my 2020 class turns out as compared to my 2014 when i didnt have my positional skill sets identified.

Yeah I'm at the point now where I'm trying to make room for my kids because atm I don't have room for Farabee or Forementon in my roster. I'm expecting to become a contender again in the next year or two so long as my kids keep coming.

I see your team and Kyle's team really making strides in terms of number of quality prospects. Prospects are just that until they become full-time NHLers. Kyle has been pulling picks near the top of the draft for a few years...really has a nice young core to build around (Dahlin/Power/Byfield/Boldy) and when he's ready, Cossa looks like he could be something special for the Red Wings.

Chicago is not far away after the first round they just had.