2020 Draft Discussion

[Shoalzie]

Lottery watch:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Lottery order hasn't been finalized due to Boston's adjusted points have yet to be calculated.


I have the top 3 pick odds posted but here's the expanded odds:
http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

[Da_Hawks]

Stupid lottery draft. Great for the NHL, worse thing to happy to fantasy hockey.

[Shoalzie]

I have each of our 15 slots matched with the respective NHL team. Maybe we'll know our draft order by Friday night.

[Matthew]

I believe with my 2 picks I'm at 22.5% to get at least one lottery spot. Not great odds, but wouldn't it be nice.

[kimmer]

are we gonna have a compiled final draft order for our league yet?

[Matthew]

1-15 is at top of thread.

Except it's wrong, as it should have me 1st and 2nd.

[dave1959]

and Boston is the only team that cannot win the lottery, correct?

[Shoalzie]

Regardless of the lottery results, I'll finalize the balance of the draft order tonight.

[kimmer]

yea i wanted to see the rest of 16-31

[kyuss]

is there a place where to see the correspondence between the NHL teams and BBKL teams ahead of tonight's lottery?

[Matthew]

Doesn't matter. Anaheim #1 + #2

[Shoalzie]

is there a place where to see the correspondence between the NHL teams and BBKL teams ahead of tonight's lottery?

In the opening post:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... jqBtc/edit

[Shoalzie]

I think tonight is more about how they present the results more than the actual results. If any of those 8 teams move up to the top 3, I hope they say which one it is. We can put our draft order together if all they tell us is tell us who is in top 3. We can figure out that if Detroit (NHL)/Chicago (BBKL) doesn't end up with a top 3 pick, we know they're 4th overall.

If any of those 8 move up, then their draft order will have 8 spots undetermined until they do that next draw. If they have to do a 2nd draw, that result could be wild given the even odds for all 8 spots. Pittsburgh, Edmonton or Carolina getting top 3 pick...yikes. But that would mean they got bounced way too early.

If the top 3 is drama-free, then we can predict what the NHL's order will end up. Montreal or Chicago would be in the #8 spot most likely. If the qualifying round has a lot of surprises, the draft order could be interesting.

Also what's fun is the fact it seems there's various opinions of who slots in after Lafreniere. Doesn't seem like Byfield is the consensus #2.

The Wings still need defense help the most but it seems like a top 4 pick should yield them a forward. Would Yzerman go with Drysdale is they slide to #4? If they don't get #1, I really don't care either end up #2, #3 or #4. Lafreniere is the prize.

[Matthew]

I think tonight is more about how they present the results more than the actual results. If any of those 8 teams move up to the top 3, I hope they say which one it is. We can put our draft order together if all they tell us is tell us who is in top 3. We can figure out that if Detroit (NHL)/Chicago (BBKL) doesn't end up with a top 3 pick, we know they're 4th overall.

Maybe I'm the only one, but the actual results are pretty important to me.

[kimmer]

is there a place where to see the correspondence between the NHL teams and BBKL teams ahead of tonight's lottery?

In the opening post:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... jqBtc/edit

IF i would share my devised standings... (attached image)
I know that ANA had 1291 pts and FLA had 1254 pts in BBKL... so why does ANA become Team H?

[Matthew]

Florida made the playoffs.

[kimmer]

nm right
i confused myself
looked deceiving

[Shoalzie]

Our lottery teams are the same regardless of us not finishing the playoffs. Florida was the lowest seeded of the playoff teams so their spot is #16 but Vancouver owns that pick.

The current order (pre-lottery) is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1885971352

[Shoalzie]

Damn, Paul...just looking at the order...5 picks in the top 32. This could be a game-changing draft for you.

[Shoalzie]

I was working on my own draft simulator and it's interesting how similar my Excel simulator is to their process.

They use 1000 "IDs" for the picks. The Wings at #1 get 185 "sequences" of the 1000 4-number sequences (18.5%) while Team H gets 10 of 1000 (1.0%). Each sequence is a number (ball) 1 through 14 where no number is repeated.

In Excel, I did 1000 "lots" with 185 for the #1 team (18.5%). I created combinations using several random numbers and the combination that would be "drawn" gets the pick. Fairly similar process but they narrowed down to 1 through 14 as the possible values and only 4 balls draw to create a sequence.