CHI/BOS: Zetterberg for Marleau

[Robin Hood]

cause to me to take a proper look a the trade (as if I was in it).

http://bbkl.hockey.cbssports.com/player ... :p/scoring -> anyone who doesn't check the comparison during a trade is out of their mind... so. Marleau wins 5 stats, Zetty wins 5 stats, although to be fair, Marleau wins his by NOTABLY more...Similar in age, both on great teams...

Looking deeping into it, this trade still looks very even on all accounts..... I'd prefer to be on the Irish side of this deal, but neither looks to be a loser. However I don't buy the C/W issues, both are clearly dual eligible players.

So why is Z better? because the media loves the Wings and hates on the Sharks?

Compare careers...Marleau had BY FAR his best season last year, and in a contract year, whereas Zetterberg had one of his worst, not a very good idea to compare last seasons stats in isolation. Marleau has proven to be a shakey, sometimes invisible player over his career, whereas Zetterberg has proven to be a consistent ppg player when healthy. I'll take him over Marleau every day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

nick, you give such biased stats LOL. here are my reasons:

1. As you said on Marleaus BEST season and Zetterbergs meh season that had an injury, the stats were even.
2. Marleau plays wing on thorntons line. Pavelski is line 2 center. meaning marleaus faceoffs will be lower than Z.
3. Assuming both keep dual eligibility, Z is a STUD from the wing with over 600 fow.
4. Z is CHEAPER!!!! it seems like nothing but 0.8m is a LOT when talking about elite players. why would you pay 0.8m MORE for a less/equal player(its not equal).
5. Kyle and Anton BOTH have enough scoring to go around. so the scoring categories marleau MAY bring more of (that is if he keeps up his career-best numbers) are not NEARLY as valuable to EITHER of them. Its called the declining value of marginal returns.
6. Zetterberg is and will be better in the long run.

Anton just gave away the better player without any sort of premium coming his way. AND I believe the reason he made the Sedin deal was to save cap (although it was still a good deal). why is he taking on more cap? not only that he helped boston get better for lesser money.

Kyle KILLS this deal.

[Nick]

Zetty did not have a bad season, he had a season he's basically had 3 out of the last 5 season, so i don't know wtf you guys are talking about!

to be clear, Marleau had 20 more goals (basically double), 3x the SHTOI, 2x the hits... I'd give that up for 220FOW, 1 BS & 4PIMS, 1 year older... call me crazy...

this was Marleau's goal high, not his point high, similar to zetty, he's had a nice 5 year run...



I didn't call you and idiot for saying Zetty is better, but I will call you a fucking retard for thinking there is a HUGE winner here.

[Mash]

Compare careers...Marleau had BY FAR his best season last year, and in a contract year, whereas Zetterberg had one of his worst, not a very good idea to compare last seasons stats in isolation. Marleau has proven to be a shakey, sometimes invisible player over his career, whereas Zetterberg has proven to be a consistent ppg player when healthy. I'll take him over Marleau every day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

Good call, I love Tuesdays!

[inferno31]

Kyle wins this clean, Marleau is far too streaky. Zetterberg and Datsyuk both had poor seasons for the red wings, doubt they'd repeat that.

[Nick]

Kyle wins this clean, Marleau is far too streaky. Zetterberg and Datsyuk both had poor seasons for the red wings, doubt they'd repeat that.

Last 5 years:

Zetty: 30g 85pts, 30g 68pts, 40g 92pts, 30g 73pts, 23g 70pts
Patty: 30g 86pts, 30g 78pts, 19g 48pts, 38g 71pts, 44g 83pts

There is 1 positive and 1 negative anomaly by each player there... zetty's (+)92pt year , (-)20 goal season and marleaus (-)48pt year and his (+)44g year.. however both have been VERY similar since the lockout... patty hits more, they both play W & C, both have very solid #1 C in front of them and very reasonable #2/3 centre behind them, both have various PK roles (though patty more recently), both are a similar age.


To say there is a huge winner is fucking retarded; Patty also consistently hits more. +/-, BS, SOG, PPTS swap year to year... I will agree Pavel had a bad year for him, however simply put Zetty doesn't put up the same pts...

[inferno31]

Last 5 years:

Zetty: 30g 85pts, 30g 68pts, 40g 92pts, 30g 73pts, 23g 70pts
Patty: 30g 86pts, 30g 78pts, 19g 48pts, 38g 71pts, 44g 83pts

There is 1 positive and 1 negative anomaly by each player there... zetty's (+)92pt year , (-)20 goal season and marleaus (-)48pt year and his (+)44g year.. however both have been VERY similar since the lockout... patty hits more, they both play W & C, both have very solid #1 C in front of them and very reasonable #2/3 centre behind them, both have various PK roles (though patty more recently), both are a similar age.


To say there is a huge winner is fucking retarded; Patty also consistently hits more. +/-, BS, SOG, PPTS swap year to year... I will agree Pavel had a bad year for him, however simply put Zetty doesn't put up the same pts...

http://bbkl.hockey.cbssports.com/player ... :p/scoring

3 year average
Zetterberg wins +/-, Assists, (BS not tracked long enough), FOW, G, SHTOI, SOG, STPTS, PIM
GWG - Tied
Marleau wins Hits

This obviously includes Marleau's shit all season and Zetterbergs 92 point season. But your season with Zetterberg only having 68 points he only played like 63 games.

09-10 Zetterberg 70 points, Marleau 83 points
08-09 Zetterberg 73 points, Marleau 71 points
07-08 Zetterberg 92 points, Marleau 48 points
06-07 Zetterberg 68 points, Marleau 78 points (in 14 more games)

Other than 06-07 they played a similar amount of games per year.

Add in Marleau at 6.9 vs Zetterberg at 6.08 cap hit per year, and being slightly younger than Marleau as well I take zetterberg every time.

[Nick]

Add in Marleau at 6.9 vs Zetterberg at 6.08 cap hit per year, and being slightly younger than Marleau as well I take zetterberg every time.

And you'd be wrong in 3 out of the last 5 years ! Although patty was majorly bad in 1 of those last 5.


If these are not two very close players I dunno who is.

[Robin Hood]

And you'd be wrong in 3 out of the last 5 years ! Although patty was majorly bad in 1 of those last 5.


If these are not two very close players I dunno who is.

i find it funny that elite gms like kareem, neel, kyle and mashley think zetterberg is the clear winner, yet you choose not to see it. neel made the EXACT point i was going to make ---> you have contructed value off of one season when that sample size is too small. zetterberg should be picked ahead of marleau in fantasy leagues EVERY time. and by a significant number of spots. you're being blinded by marleaus career season and zetterbergs injury filled season and a season wehre mind you datsyuk (injured for a long period), lidstrom AND the wings struggled. your valuation is totally off.

and EVEN IF we say marleau = zetterberg i have a simple question to ask: why waste 0.8m more cap space on players equal in value. thats the antonym of good asset management.

[Nick]

shiv, you said HUGE winner, which is fucking dumb to say.


and I also showed the he did not have this HUGE Career year just now, he scored a few more goals then he normally does, everything else is in line with a normal-post-lockout, Marleau season, and its also true with Zetty, he scored a few less goals then he normally does, but everything else is roughly in line with what he normally does.


Say you like one guy more then the other, but to say there is a HUGE winner is simply incorrect, beyond the point of opinion.

[inferno31]

If you gave me 5 dollars and I gave you 4 dollars back = Huge Win for me.
Even though they are fairly close in every year, I'd take the 5 dollars from you every single time. Yes the values are close obviously, but I'd do one every time.

[Nick]

If you gave me 5 dollars and I gave you 4 dollars back = Huge Win for me.
Even though they are fairly close in every year, I'd take the 5 dollars from you every single time. Yes the values are close obviously, but I'd do one every time.

Marleau was better more recently, and notably so on some specific BBKL/H2H terms... its pretty simple really... over the past 5 years their value is around equal, let's run with your $5 amount.


Last year Marleau was $5.50, and Zetty was $4.75... the Z group is hoping they are buying low, the Patty group hoping that he's not about to go down... could easily be a even trade, however to say that 800k cap difference makes a big winner when last year marleau was more then a little better is incorrect, once again, past the point of opinion's granted lee-way.

[Robin Hood]

yet again nick. Small sample size, anomaly/outlier. Anyway you look at it you are wrong.

[Nick]

yet again nick. Small sample size, anomaly/outlier. Anyway you look at it you are wrong.

Shiv, you toss out words you have no clue the meaning of, at least not past their wiki definitions, I'd love hear why you try to incorporate quant research methods & associated statistical analysis when comparing two players.

My argument was never that any of you are dumb or that I disrespected your opinions that Z is the better player, my opinion was that Marleau is a better h2h player, both fair. However once you decided to say

huge win

and

idiot

, I felt it was time to lay out the details in a way that even you can comprehend, sorry for being rude.

-Over the past 5 years they are very comparable (post-lock out as far back as we can go).
-Two years ago Zetty was easily worth more, when he had his career year and Patty has his slump.
-One guy has a consistent fight to stay 100% healthy, other is a tough farm boy.
-This year, taking in the most recent information, and adding appropriate weight for it, Marleau is on the up (once agin, this is not a set of #'s he'll never repeat).

So what are you trying to say? Zetty > Marleau? Base on his play 3 years ago? Patties slump 2 years ago? Ignoring the most recent information?

IMO Marleau has been better to the Sharks the Z has been to the Wings... but the first 5 years of their careers aren't even close to being comparable, and have no or little impact on their value today... Over what period of time are you comparing them?

What information are you considering when making your statements/decisions?

[armandtanzarian]

Boys, you can argue till blue in the face, this is as close as it gets in equality for two players, like Nick said. No clear winner, just a lateral move by two happy gms who both agree...

[anton]

holy shit this thread exploded haha.

you can have your opinion, but calling this a HUGE win for anyone is stupid. plain and simple.

[Robin Hood]

Shiv, you toss out words you have no clue the meaning of, at least not past their wiki definitions, I'd love hear why you try to incorporate quant research methods & associated statistical analysis when comparing two players.

I felt it was time to lay out the details in a way that even you can comprehend, sorry for being rude.

here is the problem nick. EVEN IF we assume zetterberg vs marleau is close, kyle gained 0.8m of cap space + equal stats for FREE. from a statistical/game theory standpoint that is a HUGE win.

but the actual argument aside lol nick i know you're a TA. but trust me. you're out of your league when it comes to comparing IQs/knowledge of statistics/logic with me. I would blow you out of the water lol.

[Nick]

Hey shiv, I can teach stats at a higher level you've ever taken, careful whose toes you try and step on.

I'm not a T/A, thats my joke easy summer job, I'm a PhD student in Business (OB), I have a minor is stats (both undergrad & grad), barely a work-day passes where I'm not doing some stats, from the basic shit (correlations, regressions, ANOVA) to HLM, path anaylsis (AMOS, LISRSEL) all the way to the more obscure qualitative-practices (could not teach that stuff, have simply done some).

[MSP4LYFE]

And the dick measuring begins...

[Nick]

And the dick measuring begins...

I'm white... never a good situation... wait, wait, where is bcool ???

[jcarton]

boston wins big. Anyone who says otherwise is out of their mind

you always think someone wins huge shiv , no even ground for you eh