Buds Board Keepers League

The Mathematics of BBKL Match-Ups

If you’ve ever played a game of Texas Hold ‘Em, you know one thing for a fact: All-In Pre-Flop, no hand is unbeatable. Even the worst possible hand of 2-7 Off Suit can win against the best possible hand of A-A with both its suits covered. The odds of 2-7 winning in that case? 10.78%. The odds of a tie? 0.48%. AA DOES NOT WIN 11.26% of the time.

BBKL is no different.

Before any match-up begins, it’s anyone’s game. Two years ago when Scott and the New Jersey Devils went undefeated on route to their first championship, they actually tied a team in a match-up too. Despite being the most stacked team ever assembled, the 2009-2010 Devils were not 100% locks to win any match-up.

But we know this. What we don’t know is by how much. This article will answer that question and the question of how tough it is to win a Championship in this league depending on how good your team is.

Let’s start with the Devils, however, as it is important to establish the extremes of the statistical spectrum to get an idea of what lies in the meaty part of the bell curve (yeah I’m going nerdy).

In 2009-2010, the Devils went 257-108-35 – an Average Winning % of 68.6%.
The Devils’ best season record was against the Dallas Stars (327-43-30) – a Winning % of 85.5%.
The Devils’ worst season record was against the Boston Bruins (204-155-41) – a Winning % of 56.1%.
Against the team the Devils met in the Final, the Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey had a Record of 222-149-29 – a Winning % of 59.1%.

The Toughest Opponent

The Boston Bruins. If the Devils faced the Bruins in every round of the playoffs, the probability of the Devils to win the BBKL Championship would have been:
56.1% four times over:
(0.561)^4 = 9.92%

Implication
9.92% seems like a low number but it is not. It is by far the highest odds a team had of winning the Championship that year. Having 9 to 1 odds of winning the Championship in a 30-team stats-based league is ridiculous. In the NHL, Cup Favourites are usually given 6 to 1 Odds but in those cases players like Sidney Crosby make Odds more favourable for the favourite because of their ability to control the destiny of a series.
By Contrast, if we look at the Boston Bruins in 2009-2010, against their toughest opponent in the Devils, their winning % was 43.9%. (0.439)^4 = 3.71%. That is a difference of 6%! The Bruins’ odds of winning the Cup if they played every match against the Devils was actually 33 to 1!

The Actual Road to the Championship

Now, obviously, the Devils wouldn’t have to face the Bruins in every single match-up. They first played the 8 seed, then the 4th, then the 2nd (Bruins), then the best of the West (Kings).

So what were the odds of the Devils winning that series of match-ups?

Probability
=0.686 (8th Seed) * 0.686 (4th Seed) * 0.561 (Bruins) * 0.591 (Kings)
=15.6%
Odds
Approximately 5.5 to 1

Implication
The BBKL odds of winning the Cup for a Favourite are approximately the same as the real NHL odds of the Favourite winning it all.

Easiest Opponent

Let’s now finally go over the odds of winning the Cup if you face your easiest match-up in every round. For the Devils, this match-up was against the Dallas Stars (0.855).

Probability
=(0.855)^4
= 53.4%
Odds
Approximately 1 to 1

Implication
EVEN IF the Devils played their EASIEST MATCH-UP in all 4 rounds, their odds of Winning the BBKL Championship came down to a Coin Flip.

Let me repeat that: The best team ever assembled in BBKL had only a Coin Flip of a chance of winning the Cup even if it played all 4 rounds against the Worst Team that year.

So What Does This Mean?

Below is a chart of a team’s odds of winning the Cup based on their average odds of winning a match-up. What you do with it is up to you.

Odds of Winning a Match Up - Odds of Winning 4 Playoff Series to Win the Cup
90% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 65.61%
80% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 40.96%
70% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24.01%
60% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12.96%
50% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6.25%
40% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.56%
30% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.81%
20% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.16%
10% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.01%

-Shiv
Founder, Writer, Editor-In-Chief
BBKL Illustrated

Nice write up Shiv.

Reallllllly nice stuff here Shiv.

Beautiful stuff Shiv.. although 2009-2010 Devils were the 2nd greatest team ever assembled

I razz you shiv but i appreciate the work you put in and the research. It is quite impressive. What doesmy last matchup against NJ do to our stats? My first win against nj. Not the same though.....

mr. bruin wroteCOLONI razz you shiv but i appreciate the work you put in and the research. It is quite impressive. What doesmy last matchup against NJ do to our stats? My first win against nj. Not the same though.....

Congratulations btw.. I know beating me is a big deal

Awesome shiv!

Great write-up buddy!

I make weekly trades based on this exact logic and the team I'm about to play. I load up on stats I need to compete with the team I'm about to face.