2022 Draft Discussion

[Shoalzie]

NHL announced the lottery will be May 10
https://www.nhl.com/news/2022-nhl-draft ... -333220648

I'll be honest, I still don't understand what the new lottery format is supposed to be. I actually thought the bottom 10 only eligible for #1 but even NHL.com is showing the slightest of odds going all the way to the 16th team.

Tankathon is nothing official but that looks closer to what I was expecting...
https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

I guess we'll find out soon what actually is going to happen in a couple weeks.

[Shoalzie]

This our 16 picks in the lottery:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1404975537

We make a lot of jokes around here about rebuilding teams selling off their 1st rounders to contenders but for the most part, teams have hung onto their pick. Only two lottery picks were traded and only Arizona has multiple picks in the lottery.

As of right now, Chicago and Nashville are the only teams with 3 first round picks. Arizona, Boston, Detroit, Minnesota and Winnipeg possess two picks in the round. A lot has been talked about with strength of this draft...have teams been conservative with hanging onto their picks for that reason?

I still need to finish updating the balance of the 2022 picks from a few trades but that'll be ready hopefully by the end of the month. I confirmed that the 1st round picks are all updated. I just posted the league standings and playoffs sheets and I'm referencing that in the sheets for the draft.

[KapG]

After having about 7 last year it’s going to be a slow draft for the Rangers front office this season. Bit of a bummer.

[Shoalzie]

Forgot to post, picks 17-30:

17. Florida
18. Tampa Bay
19. Minnesota
20. Pittsburgh
21. New Jersey
22. Calgary
23. Washington
24. Colorado
25. Toronto
26. Dallas
27. Edmonton
28. Vancouver
29. Philadelphia
30. Nashville

[Shoalzie]

It's been nice to be able to watch some of the U18 tournament...Team USA is showing out. Kemell had a big game against Canada.

Canada didn't have a great run but plenty to be excited in 2023 with Bedard and Fantilli. I'm very excited to see Fantilli be the new top guy at Michigan after all their departures.

[Shoalzie]

Final two slots in the draft are decided...
31. Anaheim
32. Buffalo

We'll know the entire draft order on May 10. Full odds are posted:
https://www.nhl.com/news/2022-nhl-draft ... -333655768

Answers the question that everyone in the 16 lottery spots are eligible for the #1 pick.

[kyuss]

No they aren't? (12-16)

[DApolloS]

No they aren't? (12-16)

Sorry, misunderstood what you meant. My bad.

The pttery is similar to how it used to be. Before they had 3 lottery picks, it was 1 pick and teams could only move up 5 spots. Now we have 2 lottery picks and teams can move up 10 spots. It's very straightforward.

[kyuss]

12-16 are not

[dave1959]

12-16 can only move up 10 spots

[Shoalzie]

It's strange, they do list the odds for 1-16 but they also mention this:

REMINDER: The NHL announced changes to the Draft Lottery format on March 23, 2021. Among the changes taking effect this season, there will be a limit on the total number of selections (10) a team participating in the Draft Lottery can "move up" in the event it wins one of the Lottery Draws. Thus, only the top 11 seeds will be eligible to receive the first overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft.

Tankathon probably has is right. I'm trying to under why any of the bottom teams have odds at all.

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

Are they essentially throwing all 16 teams in but it it's a lower team that is drawn, they just draw again? Seems inefficient...just exclude these teams from the process if that's how it's going to go.

[Shoalzie]

12-16 can only move up 10 spots

Seems like such a clunky way of it doing it but I guess I understand what the goal is.

Basically, let's say Vancouver gets drawn, that guarantees that Montreal is the #1 pick?

[dave1959]

It's strange, they do list the odds for 1-16 but they also mention this:

REMINDER: The NHL announced changes to the Draft Lottery format on March 23, 2021. Among the changes taking effect this season, there will be a limit on the total number of selections (10) a team participating in the Draft Lottery can "move up" in the event it wins one of the Lottery Draws. Thus, only the top 11 seeds will be eligible to receive the first overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft.

Tankathon probably has is right. I'm trying to under why any of the bottom teams have odds at all.

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

Are they essentially throwing all 16 teams in but it it's a lower team that is drawn, they just draw again? Seems inefficient...just exclude these teams from the process if that's how it's going to go.

I don't think they draw again. If say team 13 wins, they move up 10 spots, the ones below all move down 1 spot, and the ones above stay the same, IE Montreal keeps 1st.

[kyuss]

Tankathon probably has is right. I'm trying to under why any of the bottom teams have odds at all.

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

Are they essentially throwing all 16 teams in but it it's a lower team that is drawn, they just draw again? Seems inefficient...just exclude these teams from the process if that's how it's going to go.

teams can only move up 10 spots, as you quoted, hence only 1-11 can have #1. But not only moving up to #1 matters, #16 could move up to #6..

[Shoalzie]

I think I'm getting now...it sounds more like how they had presented originally but I'll tie myself up in knots if something doesn't read right to me. I do that a lot with how we write up our rules in the CBA.

Essentially, Montreal has an additional 7% chance of getting the first pick when you fold in the possibility that any of the teams drawn in 12-16 slots. It would result in them staying at the #1 spot along with that other team only moving up 10 spots as well. The Canadiens have 18.5% chance of being drawn as #1 but they have another 7% of staying #1 because those other teams can't jump ahead of them but they end up with a better position.

In total, Montreal has a 25.5% chance of keeping the #1 spot with the first draw odds...which is what I see on Tankathon's table.

I assume that's what happens with the second draw but team 12 (Columbus) would only have a chance to move up to #2 at best but the team 13-16 can only jump up 10 spots so those odds are also in Arizona's favor of staying #2 if Montreal retains the #1 spot.

[Shoalzie]

The wait will soon be over...lottery is at 6:30 before tonight's games.

https://www.nhl.com/news/2022-nhl-draft ... =277764372

Any idea if they do the drawing of the balls on TV or are we getting the traditional logos on a card thing?

[Da_Hawks]

The only time I will ever cheer for Montreal. Go Habs Go! Win that #1 slot.

[Matthew]

Someone trade me a top 10 pick before the lottery

[Shoalzie]

I've been eyeballing prospects in the 8-10 range. I've got a few names that I like in that back half of the top 10.

I'm not holding out hope that I move up to 1 or 2 but that's why they call it a lottery. Cool thing for me is the Red Wings have my spot in the lottery so it's a win-win if I do move up.

I haven't posted an actual trade block yet but I'm open to doing some moving around in the 1st round with my two picks. I currently hold picks 8 and 24. I'm more likely to move back (and acquire extra picks) than try to move up.

[Matthew]

Did you slide the teams who missed GP back a spot? Also, those teams cannot win lotto:

Skater GP
New York rangers
Vegas

Goalie GS
Boston
San Jose
Vegas
St Louis
New York Islanders
Montreal