Buds Board Keepers League

foofnik wroteCOLON

Shoalzie wroteCOLONFrom my perspective with our internal talks, I didn't understand why waiting for the first NHL lottery draw on Friday to take place was less desirable than scheduling an independent simulator draw in late July. We could've used these NHL results but if the results were inconclusive in any way, then we could've pushed for a simulator to accomplish what we needed.

That is all we've asked for. If the results are not usable then by all means proceed with our own lottery but don't throw away the NHL results when thats what we ways use.

As for Mik all I stated were 2 facts. I can't speak for internal CC discussions, all I see is what/who posts in this thread but across my 5 leagues that all use NHL lottery results there has only been a single person fighting against using the results and that is Mik.

I've not been even fighting against using the NHL lottery per se. Not inside CC and not even here. What I was trying to avoid was us getting in a bad place once the NHL lottery is done.
As I stated, if a satisfying solution was presented to take care of the scenario where the NHL doesn't announce the phantom team I'd definitely be in favor of going with the NHL lottery. Fact is, the only solution in that case appears to be running our own lottery again from scratch, at some point (even if the NHL doesn't announce the phantom team right away, that info might come along later on...), which would be much worse than running our own lottery through a simulator straight away.

...when the only person arguing against using NHL results is someone who has skin in the game and has a key role as a CC member in determining that process for our own lottery i think it should be public knowledge.

unless, that person 'doesn't have skin in the game'

I think it would just be wise to let the Friday results come out and then decide where we go from there.

Malette18 wroteCOLON

Matthew wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

dave1959 wroteCOLONDon't blame you Mik.

I don't see how doing the lottery either way has any affect on the outcome of your picks, or mine, or any others.

People just love to bitch and complain.

maybe it's time we just get rid of the CC and just let the whole league have a vote in everything.

That way nobody can bitch about anything.

.

There is no information out there that indicates the NHL won't reveal which placeholder team wins, but in the small chance they don't, the person who stood to lose the most was Mik. The inverse is also true that I stood to gain the most. That isn't an accusation but I think knowing those facts I wouldn't want either of us involved in the decision making or being the one confronting the rest of the league about it on behalf of the CC's decision. Optics wise it doesn't look great when the person who has the most to lose is fighting for that outcome to be deleted.

Please explain how you stood to lose and how mik stood to gain, given the percentages will be exactly the same in either format?

In the event that we decided to use the NHL results, the results end up incompatible, we do a 2nd lotto, we are effectively giving the bottom 7 a 2nd chance as if the 1st result was 3 bottom 7 the NHL result would have stood. The analogy I can think of is if you roll a dice if its 1-5 the outcome stands and if 6, roll again, and then that 2nd roll stands. Odds are not representative of our lottery but that's the idea. The reason we have most to gain/lose is because the difference between 1st and 4th for Hawks isn't that large, but having a top 3 pick vs not haing one is massive.

Now the obvous counter is if that's true why are you against doing the BBKL lotto? Because i see that situation very unlikely given the information we know. The most likely outcome by skipping the NHL lottery is on Friday we get a useable result and whoever would have won would be pissed their result was washed to protect against a small chance of an advantage between NSH/VGK.

wait, does this go back to that conditioned deal?
http://bbkl.ca/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=15069

kyuss wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

Matthew wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

dave1959 wroteCOLONDon't blame you Mik.

I don't see how doing the lottery either way has any affect on the outcome of your picks, or mine, or any others.

People just love to bitch and complain.

maybe it's time we just get rid of the CC and just let the whole league have a vote in everything.

That way nobody can bitch about anything.

.

There is no information out there that indicates the NHL won't reveal which placeholder team wins, but in the small chance they don't, the person who stood to lose the most was Mik. The inverse is also true that I stood to gain the most. That isn't an accusation but I think knowing those facts I wouldn't want either of us involved in the decision making or being the one confronting the rest of the league about it on behalf of the CC's decision. Optics wise it doesn't look great when the person who has the most to lose is fighting for that outcome to be deleted.

Please explain how you stood to lose and how mik stood to gain, given the percentages will be exactly the same in either format?

In the event that we decided to use the NHL results, the results end up incompatible, we do a 2nd lotto, we are effectively giving the bottom 7 a 2nd chance as if the 1st result was 3 bottom 7 the NHL result would have stood. The analogy I can think of is if you roll a dice if its 1-5 the outcome stands and if 6, roll again, and then that 2nd roll stands. Odds are not representative of our lottery but that's the idea. The reason we have most to gain/lose is because the difference between 1st and 4th for Hawks isn't that large, but having a top 3 pick vs not haing one is massive.

Now the obvous counter is if that's true why are you against doing the BBKL lotto? Because i see that situation very unlikely given the information we know. The most likely outcome by skipping the NHL lottery is on Friday we get a useable result and whoever would have won would be pissed their result was washed to protect against a small chance of an advantage between NSH/VGK.

wait, does this go back to that conditioned deal?
http://bbkl.ca/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=15069

Darling 4 vezina

Yeah, we have a few conditional trades that need to be "closed out".

kyuss wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLON

Shoalzie wroteCOLONFrom my perspective with our internal talks, I didn't understand why waiting for the first NHL lottery draw on Friday to take place was less desirable than scheduling an independent simulator draw in late July. We could've used these NHL results but if the results were inconclusive in any way, then we could've pushed for a simulator to accomplish what we needed.

That is all we've asked for. If the results are not usable then by all means proceed with our own lottery but don't throw away the NHL results when thats what we ways use.

As for Mik all I stated were 2 facts. I can't speak for internal CC discussions, all I see is what/who posts in this thread but across my 5 leagues that all use NHL lottery results there has only been a single person fighting against using the results and that is Mik.

I've not been even fighting against using the NHL lottery per se. Not inside CC and not even here. What I was trying to avoid was us getting in a bad place once the NHL lottery is done.
As I stated, if a satisfying solution was presented to take care of the scenario where the NHL doesn't announce the phantom team I'd definitely be in favor of going with the NHL lottery. Fact is, the only solution in that case appears to be running our own lottery again from scratch, at some point (even if the NHL doesn't announce the phantom team right away, that info might come along later on...), which would be much worse than running our own lottery through a simulator straight away.

...when the only person arguing against using NHL results is someone who has skin in the game and has a key role as a CC member in determining that process for our own lottery i think it should be public knowledge.

unless, that person 'doesn't have skin in the game'

Hence the point of a disclaimer. Put a timeframe on it then, if the NHL does not announce or confirm officially who the exact winning teams are for the 3 lottery picks by 1 week after the lottery drawing then we perform our own lottery. Tweets from journalists or insiders do not qualify and if the NHL announces them after our deadline we still follow our own lottery results. There are plenty of comparisons to use for this scenario, Jordans dice roll where one result means a reroll, Shoalzies pulling a joker from a deck of cards analogy. This is not some unique circumstance that no one has ever seen before, it should be very simple to follow the NHL results like we've always done, and if we can't then we use an alternative method, but there is no reason to throw out the NHL results before we even see them.

My points would be the same with all of this regardless of your conditional pick or not, all I did was point it out for those who did not know/remember about it or have skipped most of this conversation. Maybe I should mention I own a lottery pick too, 14th I believe. And in the event I somehow win the NHL lottery and we cannot use it and I lose the BBKL lottery, you won't hear a word from me about it since the process will be fair and following what we and other leagues have been doing for many years.

I'm in 5 dynasty hockey leagues including this one, roughly 100 unique GM's when you factor in overlap, and you're the only one arguing to not use the NHL's lottery results. Those who know me, some for many years, also know I'm never the one to cause a fuss or argue something like this. Both of these points here should tell you something.

foofnik wroteCOLONThose who know me, some for many years, also know I'm never the one to cause a fuss or argue something like this. Both of these points here should tell you something.

Met you once and you put up a fuss over who paid the bill, can confirm you are a fuss creator.

Malette18 wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLONThose who know me, some for many years, also know I'm never the one to cause a fuss or argue something like this. Both of these points here should tell you something.

Met you once and you put up a fuss over who paid the bill, can confirm you are a fuss creator.

You were on vacation, why would I let you buy the beers

I'm in 5 dynasty hockey leagues including this one, roughly 100 unique GM's when you factor in overlap, and you're the only one arguing to not use the NHL's lottery results.

Man what an evil I must be.

One note, if I may, seems worth making though:
the original decision made by the CC (not by me, unlike you make it sound, and not even off an idea of mine) left all BBKL teams' odds untouched.

That doesn't seem 100% true for the alternatives instead. Yet I get accused to be the one trying to alter things in his favor.
It's an interesting point of view to say the least.

I'm fairly certain that both ways we do this leaves no teams odds changed guys. Like, zero difference.

kyuss wroteCOLON

I'm in 5 dynasty hockey leagues including this one, roughly 100 unique GM's when you factor in overlap, and you're the only one arguing to not use the NHL's lottery results.

Man what an evil I must be.

One note, if I may, seems worth making though:
the original decision made by the CC (not by me, unlike you make it sound, and not even off an idea of mine) left all BBKL teams' odds untouched.

That doesn't seem 100% true for the alternatives instead. Yet I get accused to be the one trying to alter things in his favor.
It's an interesting point of view to say the least.

Evil is your word, not mine. All I'm doing is stating what I see. Which is almost everyone is content with letting the NHL lottery play out and using those results. On the small chance we cannot use them, then we go to an alternate action. But no one else is pushing to skip the NHL results before we see what they are. And that is all I/we have asked for since the beginning.

As I mentioned earlier all I can speak upon is what is in this thread, which is basically just you. Other CC members like Scott have chimed in to follow the NHL lottery and proceed from there. I'm not privy to CC discussions. Nor do I know how the initial discussions went, but it seems that other CC members are now saying to see what happens Friday and then proceed from there with the information we get.

For the BBKl lottery there have been no announcements made on the process. Is it going to be a recording of one of us pulling lottery balls out of a bag? Is it a live Zoom of someone on a screenshare website doing a drawing? There has been no information given, hence I am making no accusations on it. All I stated was that the optics look poor when publicly, the only vocal person against using the NHL results has something big to lose or gain depending on the results. The same could probably be said of Jordan who is on the direct opposite side as the condition is on his pick between you two, that neither of you should be heavily or directly involved in sorting this out.

foofnik wroteCOLON

I'm in 5 dynasty hockey leagues including this one, roughly 100 unique GM's when you factor in overlap, and you're the only one arguing to not use the NHL's lottery results. Those who know me, some for many years, also know I'm never the one to cause a fuss or argue something like this. Both of these points here should tell you something.

he's just the only one "arguing" here. it was a unanimous vote in CC for us to run our own this year.

don't put it all on Mik.

Matthew wroteCOLONI'm fairly certain that both ways we do this leaves no teams odds changed guys. Like, zero difference.

If the nhl does the 2nd and 3rd lottery the way I interpret (removing the winner of the previous draw and allocating their odds of winning next lotto to everyone on a proportional basis) then yes.

However, they don’t explicitly say word for word how they do it so we can’t make any assumptions!

dave1959 wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLON

I'm in 5 dynasty hockey leagues including this one, roughly 100 unique GM's when you factor in overlap, and you're the only one arguing to not use the NHL's lottery results. Those who know me, some for many years, also know I'm never the one to cause a fuss or argue something like this. Both of these points here should tell you something.

he's just the only one "arguing" here. it was a unanimous vote in CC for us to run our own this year.

don't put it all on Mik.

I'm sure it was a group discussion and I appreciate the thought that I'm sure went into this, you of all people know I understand the other side of things, but it seems opinions and thoughts have changed since that discussion yet here we are on mid Wednesday without any changes or even the vote that was said would be put up. Non CC members who have chimed in this discussion all seem on board with letting the NHL lottery play out first, as do some other CC members who have posted since the announcement was initially made.

Malette18 wroteCOLON

Matthew wroteCOLONI'm fairly certain that both ways we do this leaves no teams odds changed guys. Like, zero difference.

If the nhl does the 2nd and 3rd lottery the way I interpret (removing the winner of the previous draw and allocating their odds of winning next lotto to everyone on a proportional basis) then yes.

However, they don’t explicitly say word for word how they do it so we can’t make any assumptions!

Posted this the other day when it was released:
https://media.nhl.com/public/news/14021

" 1st Lottery Draw

* If the winning team of the 1st Lottery Draw is from the #1-7 group, that team wins the right to the first overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. If the winning team of the 1st Lottery Draw is from the #8-15 group, the right to the first overall pick will be determined in Phase 2 of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery.



* After the 1st Lottery Draw, the winning team (from either the #1-7 group or the #8-15 group) no longer will be eligible for the 2nd or 3rd Lottery Draws. All number combinations originally assigned to this team will become “Re-Draw Combinations” for the 2nd and 3rd Lottery Draws. The remaining teams’ odds will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery Draw, based on which team wins the 1st Lottery Draw.


2nd Lottery Draw

* If the winning team of the 2nd Lottery Draw is from the #1-7 group, that team wins the right to the second overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. If the winning team of the 2nd Lottery Draw is from the #8-15 group, the right to the second overall pick will be determined in Phase 2 of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery.



* After the 2nd Lottery Draw, the winning team (from either the #1-7 group or the #8-15 group) no longer will be eligible for the 3rd Lottery Draw. All number combinations originally assigned to this team will become “Re-Draw Combinations” for the 3rd Lottery Draw. The remaining teams’ odds will increase on a proportionate basis for the 3rd Lottery Draw, based on which team wins the 2nd Lottery Draw.


3rd Lottery Draw

* If the winning team of the 3rd Lottery Draw is from the #1-7 group, that team wins the right to the third overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. If the winning team of the 3rd Lottery Draw is from the #8-15 group, the right to the third overall pick will be determined in Phase 2 of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery."


It's explicit. The balls will be removed for whichever team wins each position.

Thanks. I’ve only seen the odds increase on a proportional basis before, not the exact steps they take to do so.

foofnik wroteCOLONOther CC members like Scott have chimed in to follow the NHL lottery

Scott is not a CC member.

Put a timeframe on it then, if the NHL does not announce or confirm officially who the exact winning teams are for the 3 lottery picks by 1 week after the lottery drawing then we perform our own lottery. Tweets from journalists or insiders do not qualify and if the NHL announces them after our deadline we still follow our own lottery results.

hopefully other CC members will manage to make a decision public on that matter (it's not even important what they decide, as long as they decide it and make it official before the NHL lottery takes place)

Matthew wroteCOLONI'm fairly certain that both ways we do this leaves no teams odds changed guys. Like, zero difference.

thinking about it...
suppose the NHL won't announce the A-H team. Now let's consider the two extremes to keep it simple:
3 bottom teams winning all 3 draws, 3 A-H teams winning all 3 draws.
The first outcome would fly.
The latter unlikely scenario would mean the bottom teams would have all missed out on the top 3 picks, but that will lead to a repetition of the lottery through a simulator, making twice as unlikely the chances of all bottom teams missing out on all the top 3 picks.

Not as bad as re-running a lottery for the single draw that saw a phantom A-H team winning it, but if indeed NHL doesn't announce the A-H team, to me odds for BBKL teams do not look exactly the same as they were supposed to be.

kyuss wroteCOLON 3 bottom teams winning all 3 draws, 3 A-H teams winning all 3 draws.
The first outcome would fly.
The latter unlikely scenario would mean the bottom teams would have all missed out on the top 3 picks, but that will lead to a repetition of the lottery through a simulator, making twice as unlikely the chances of all bottom teams missing out on all the top 3 picks.

Not as bad as re-running a lottery for the single draw that saw a phantom A-H team winning it, but if indeed NHL doesn't announce the A-H team, to me odds for BBKL teams do not look exactly the same as they were supposed to be.

It's very similar to if the NHL's result on Friday is:

1. Team D
2. Team E
3. Team F

We will look back on this year that 3 teams in the 8-15 range were screwed out of a pick. I'd rather do what could possible lead to an outcome where there is no asterisk over one that will forever have one regardless of result.

You're wrong. It's like flipping a coin. Even if you get heads the first time, the chances you get heads the second time are still 50%.

The odds are the same.

Matthew wroteCOLONYou're wrong. It's like flipping a coin. Even if you get heads the first time, the chances you get heads the second time are still 50%.

The odds are the same.

Who are you speaking to?