Buds Board Keepers League

foofnik wroteCOLONNo one is getting second chances. If the NHL gives us detailed breakdown then we use that. If they don't then we run our own lottery.

if they don't and we run our own lottery from scratch you're giving bottom-7 teams second chances (hence altering the overall offs), so that's not a viable solution

kyuss wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON Can you just tell me that you understand that Team A to H are the same odds as 8 to 15 normally would and if they announce Team B won 3rd lotto we have no issue. It honestly seems like you don't understand that.

especially when they probably won't know that themselves

LOL

how will they not know lol

kyuss wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLONNo one is getting second chances. If the NHL gives us detailed breakdown then we use that. If they don't then we run our own lottery.

if they don't and we run our own lottery from scratch you're giving bottom-7 teams second chances (hence altering the overall offs), so that's not a viable solution

There's 3 possible outcomes:

1. 3 bottom 7 teams win lotto (good)
2. some combination of bottom 7 team + Team X (good)
3. some combination of bottom 7 team + one of unidentified team A-H (bad)

The proposal at hand is planning for 3 when the combined likelihood of 1 OR 2 happening is far greater. We've agreed using the NHL results would be best like normal years, so why not create a plan that maximizes our ability to use them?

kimmer wroteCOLONhow will they not know lol

as far as I know, they usually match numbers on the balls entering the draw with teams. In this case they will match the numbers belonging to the bottom 7 teams, but I see no reasons for them to match the numbers of the balls dedicated to the A-H teams with specific teams (team A, team B etc) when such team are not matched with any real team yet and they will make a second draw anyway to determine which A-H team will win. So, simply matching the numbers of the balls dedicated to the A-H teams with a generic '2nd phase' outcome would suffice and make more sense

Malette18 wroteCOLON

kyuss wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLONNo one is getting second chances. If the NHL gives us detailed breakdown then we use that. If they don't then we run our own lottery.

if they don't and we run our own lottery from scratch you're giving bottom-7 teams second chances (hence altering the overall offs), so that's not a viable solution

There's 3 possible outcomes:

1. 3 bottom 7 teams win lotto (good)
2. some combination of bottom 7 team + Team X (good)
3. some combination of bottom 7 team + one of unidentified team A-H (bad)

The proposal at hand is planning for 3 when the combined likelihood of 1 OR 2 happening is far greater. We've agreed using the NHL results would be best like normal years, so why not create a plan that maximizes our ability to use them?

as far as you can find a solution for scenario #3 that still allows us not to alter our pre-lottery odds, you can count on my vote, no problems.

But if outcome #3 means our teams' overall odds would be altered, then the whole thing needs to be done differently in the first place. We can't count on scenario 3 not happening (it's not a remote eventuality either).

kyuss wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

kyuss wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLONNo one is getting second chances. If the NHL gives us detailed breakdown then we use that. If they don't then we run our own lottery.

if they don't and we run our own lottery from scratch you're giving bottom-7 teams second chances (hence altering the overall offs), so that's not a viable solution

There's 3 possible outcomes:

1. 3 bottom 7 teams win lotto (good)
2. some combination of bottom 7 team + Team X (good)
3. some combination of bottom 7 team + one of unidentified team A-H (bad)

The proposal at hand is planning for 3 when the combined likelihood of 1 OR 2 happening is far greater. We've agreed using the NHL results would be best like normal years, so why not create a plan that maximizes our ability to use them?

as far as you can find a solution for scenario #3 that still allows us not to alter our pre-lottery odds, you can count on my vote, no problems.

But if outcome #3 means our teams' overall odds would be altered, then the whole thing needs to be done differently in the first place. We can't count on scenario 3 not happening (it's not a remote eventuality either).

I get what you're saying in that a second roll would favour those with best odds, but I also think it's not a big concern. The best & worst-case scenario's in both situations are vastly different:

Best Cases:
- NHL result used with no issues everyone happy
OR
- NHL decided to be ignored beforehand, NHL result proven unusable.

Worst Cases:
- NHL result used, an unidentifed team is pulled: Bottom teams get a re-roll
OR
- NHL decided to be ignored beforehand, Team F is pulled and that team + others are furious as they likely won't win BBKL lotto

Most likely cases:
- NHL result used with no issues everyone happy
OR
- NHL decided to be ignored beforehand, whoever wins NHL lotto will be mad if the NHL result would have been useable.

kyuss wroteCOLON

kimmer wroteCOLONhow will they not know lol

as far as I know, they usually match numbers on the balls entering the draw with teams. In this case they will match the numbers belonging to the bottom 7 teams, but I see no reasons for them to match the numbers of the balls dedicated to the A-H teams with specific teams (team A, team B etc) when such team are not matched with any real team yet and they will make a second draw anyway to determine which A-H team will win. So, simply matching the numbers of the balls dedicated to the A-H teams with a generic '2nd phase' outcome would suffice and make more sense

If this is how they are picking the spots then they absolutely need to know who each ball belongs to since teams can't win multiple spots in the lottery. For example team H has a 1% chance at number 1. So let's say 1000 balls are used, so they would get balls labeled 991-1000, so 10 balls are theirs. If ball 995 is pulled for position 1, they can't then have ball 993 pulled for draw 2 and keep it. They need to redraw that one.

For their own second draw they need to know which spots are eligible, if any, so they need to know exactly who wins each spot. It's whether they announce that or not is the question, which I don't see any reason why they wouldn't since no teams are tied to them.

Malette18 wroteCOLON

kyuss wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

kyuss wroteCOLON

foofnik wroteCOLONNo one is getting second chances. If the NHL gives us detailed breakdown then we use that. If they don't then we run our own lottery.

if they don't and we run our own lottery from scratch you're giving bottom-7 teams second chances (hence altering the overall offs), so that's not a viable solution

There's 3 possible outcomes:

1. 3 bottom 7 teams win lotto (good)
2. some combination of bottom 7 team + Team X (good)
3. some combination of bottom 7 team + one of unidentified team A-H (bad)

The proposal at hand is planning for 3 when the combined likelihood of 1 OR 2 happening is far greater. We've agreed using the NHL results would be best like normal years, so why not create a plan that maximizes our ability to use them?

as far as you can find a solution for scenario #3 that still allows us not to alter our pre-lottery odds, you can count on my vote, no problems.

But if outcome #3 means our teams' overall odds would be altered, then the whole thing needs to be done differently in the first place. We can't count on scenario 3 not happening (it's not a remote eventuality either).

I get what you're saying in that a second roll would favour those with best odds, but I also think it's not a big concern. The best & worst-case scenario's in both situations are vastly different

The worst-case scenarios are what is indeed very different:
under what CC proposed you'd have a bad taste in the mouth of some GMs, while the integrity of the lottery would be preserved. All BBKL teams will have had the same odds they were supposed to have.
Under what's been proposed here so far you'd have a flawed lottery where some BBKL teams get better odds than they should have had.
The first scenario is not ideal, the second one is in my opinion simply not acceptable.

Unless evidence is found that the NHL plans on making public the name of the phanton team (A-H) that wins one of the draws, someone should figure out what the lottery odds should be for our 2nd-phase lottery (pertaining only to our A-H teams) in order to make the overall (phase1 + phase2) odds of those teams the same as before the NHL lottery.
If we have someone figuring that out before June 26th , then we can go with the NHL draft as far as I'm concerned.

Very simple solution here mik and I believe this is what the nhl will do as well. 1-7 are already known. The issue is A-H. I would assume the nhl will assign A to the worst ranked knocked out team. B to the second worst knock out team and so on. We do the same with our final standings. That way if NHL pulls ball A then it's team #8. If D is pulled then it's team ranked #11.

And we don't do a second lottery that the NHL plans. That's just dumb.

You're making this WAY more complicated than it needed to be.

It’s all about how likely each scenario is.

The odds all 3 lotto are in bottom 7 is roughly 30%. The remaining 70% of the time Team A-H will be in the top 3. I think it’s much more likely they reveal the team, but let’s say it’s 50/50. 65% of the time everyone is happy and lottery goes as normal.

We’re altering our ways for 35% of the time and I think that’s being very generous in terms of it being 50/50 as the only info they’ve given us correspond to Team A-H’s individual odds and not as a bulk.

Chuck Norris wroteCOLONVery simple solution here mik and I believe this is what the nhl will do as well. 1-7 are already known. The issue is A-H. I would assume the nhl will assign A to the worst ranked knocked out team. B to the second worst knock out team and so on. We do the same with our final standings. That way if NHL pulls ball A then it's team #8. If D is pulled then it's team ranked #11.

And we don't do a second lottery that the NHL plans. That's just dumb.

You're making this WAY more complicated than it needed to be.

This whole thing is based on what if the NHL just says “1 of Team A-H won a lotto position” and we can’t pair with our team because they didn’t say Team C for example

someone should ask Bob lol

My head hurts from reading all this

Malette18 wroteCOLON

Chuck Norris wroteCOLONVery simple solution here mik and I believe this is what the nhl will do as well. 1-7 are already known. The issue is A-H. I would assume the nhl will assign A to the worst ranked knocked out team. B to the second worst knock out team and so on. We do the same with our final standings. That way if NHL pulls ball A then it's team #8. If D is pulled then it's team ranked #11.

And we don't do a second lottery that the NHL plans. That's just dumb.

You're making this WAY more complicated than it needed to be.

This whole thing is based on what if the NHL just says “1 of Team A-H won a lotto position” and we can’t pair with our team because they didn’t say Team C for example

That's all based on the assumption they won't display what ball was picked. If the NHL does then problem solved. Why don't we see what they do in 5 days and if they do then easy were done and replicate. If they don't then we have to get creative.

Chuck Norris wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

Chuck Norris wroteCOLONVery simple solution here mik and I believe this is what the nhl will do as well. 1-7 are already known. The issue is A-H. I would assume the nhl will assign A to the worst ranked knocked out team. B to the second worst knock out team and so on. We do the same with our final standings. That way if NHL pulls ball A then it's team #8. If D is pulled then it's team ranked #11.

And we don't do a second lottery that the NHL plans. That's just dumb.

You're making this WAY more complicated than it needed to be.

This whole thing is based on what if the NHL just says “1 of Team A-H won a lotto position” and we can’t pair with our team because they didn’t say Team C for example

That's all based on the assumption they won't display what ball was picked. If the NHL does then problem solved. Why don't we see what they do in 5 days and if they do then easy were done and replicate. If they don't then we have to get creative.

Exactly what we've been pushing for.

Chuck Norris wroteCOLON

Malette18 wroteCOLON

Chuck Norris wroteCOLONVery simple solution here mik and I believe this is what the nhl will do as well. 1-7 are already known. The issue is A-H. I would assume the nhl will assign A to the worst ranked knocked out team. B to the second worst knock out team and so on. We do the same with our final standings. That way if NHL pulls ball A then it's team #8. If D is pulled then it's team ranked #11.

And we don't do a second lottery that the NHL plans. That's just dumb.

You're making this WAY more complicated than it needed to be.

This whole thing is based on what if the NHL just says “1 of Team A-H won a lotto position” and we can’t pair with our team because they didn’t say Team C for example

That's all based on the assumption they won't display what ball was picked. If the NHL does then problem solved. Why don't we see what they do in 5 days and if they do then easy were done and replicate. If they don't then we have to get creative.

That would be the sensible approach.

How about we discuss now the 'getting creative part' so that we know we have a way out (one that doesn't penalize any bbkl team, which has to be our priority) when they don't display which ball was picked.

if we don't have a legit way out before the NHL lottery, we shouldn't use the NHL lottery for our purposes.

kyuss wroteCOLONHow about we discuss now the 'getting creative part' so that we know we have a way out (one that doesn't penalize any bbkl team, which has to be our priority) when they don't display which ball was picked.

if we don't have a legit way out before the NHL lottery, we shouldn't use the NHL lottery for our purposes.

I personally think the chance the NHL results being unusable is so low that it's not worth racking our brain over. If the worst case scenario is we do a lottery again with the same odds, that is going to be way worth the "risk" that everyone could possibly be happy with the NHL results being used.

Imagine the fun:
BBKL team wins the lottery for #1
another BBKL team wins the lottery for #2

then an A-H team wins the lottery for #3.... and they don't say which team. After some time waiting for that info, we give up, delete the NHL lottery results and re-run our lottery from scratch.
The following week Bob comes out revealing: hey btw, I learned the ball drawn for pick #3 belonged to team H.

Sounds lovely.
Especially for someone who seems so concerned about the feelings of GMs that might feel screwed by us not using the NHL lottery in the first place.

Even waiting for that info from June 26th till the start of the play-in round (our scheduled lottery date) might not entirely prevent that ugly scenario.