Page 12 of 32
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:36 pm
by foofnik
If you're so concerned that the NHL won't announce specific teams then add the disclaimer and no harm is done. Their lottery is before the proposed BBKL one anyway so either we mirror the results on NHL lottery day (June 26), or they don't share all the information we need and then we run our own later on per the announcement. Seems pretty cut and dry and simple.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:02 pm
by Chuck Norris
Multiple Tampa players just tested positive for COVID. I'd wager that's the nail in the coffin and the season is done.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:46 pm
by Sensfanjosh
Clearly the CC is just interested in generating TV ratings and has no regard for the simulation sanctity of the league
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:58 pm
by kyuss
foofnik wroteCOLONIf you're so concerned that the NHL won't announce specific teams
I am not sure why you guys act like it's not a legit concern.
Not only it is unlikely they will announce it, to me it doesn't even sound like they will know which team (A-H) won it.
In fact, from their website:
"The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks."
https://www.nhl.com/news/2020-nhl-draft ... -317026602
to me it sounds like all the balls corresponding to teams A-H will be 'packaged' and marked the same way.
In the (first) potential 2nd-phase draw teams will all have 1/8 odds, which alters our pre-lottery odds, so we can't use their 2nd-phase draws if they are needed.
then add the disclaimer and no harm is done. Their lottery is before the proposed BBKL one anyway so either we mirror the results on NHL lottery day (June 26), or they don't share all the information we need and then we run our own later on per the announcement. Seems pretty cut and dry and simple.
Add the disclaimer and then? if one of the draws requires a 2nd-phase draw you can't just re-do our lottery, otherwise you'd give the bottom 7 teams the chance to win it twice.
So we would need to run our own sub-lottery for our A-H teams, but this time we'd need to figure out the odds of our 8-teams lottery so that the total odds (1st-phase lottery + 2nd phase lottery) match the pre NHL lottery odds. To me it sounds like a headache rather than cut and dry. But hey, if it's doable (and someone takes the time to do it right) I'm fine with it.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:06 pm
by kimmer
Chuck Norris wroteCOLONMultiple Tampa players just tested positive for COVID. I'd wager that's the nail in the coffin and the season is done.
start with auston
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:14 pm
by Jordan (VGK)
kyuss wroteCOLONfoofnik wroteCOLONIf you're so concerned that the NHL won't announce specific teams
I am not sure why you guys act like it's not a legit concern.
Not only it is unlikely they will announce it, to me it doesn't even sound like they will know which team (A-H) won it.
In fact, from their website:
"The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks."
https://www.nhl.com/news/2020-nhl-draft ... -317026602
to me it sounds like all the balls corresponding to teams A-H will be 'packaged' and marked the same way.
In the (first) potential 2nd-phase draw teams will all have 1/8 odds, which alters our pre-lottery odds, so we can't use their 2nd-phase draws if they are needed.
then add the disclaimer and no harm is done. Their lottery is before the proposed BBKL one anyway so either we mirror the results on NHL lottery day (June 26), or they don't share all the information we need and then we run our own later on per the announcement. Seems pretty cut and dry and simple.
Add the disclaimer and then? if one of the draws requires a 2nd-phase draw you can't just re-do our lottery, otherwise you'd give the bottom 7 teams the chance to win it twice.
So we would need to run our own sub-lottery for our A-H teams, but this time we'd need to figure out the odds of our 8-teams lottery so that the total odds (1st-phase lottery + 2nd phase lottery) match the pre NHL lottery odds. To me it sounds like a headache rather than cut and dry. But hey, if it's doable (and someone takes the time to do it right) I'm fine with it.
I took the time.
Disclaimer:
If the NHL results can be used, use them. Otherwise, conduct BBKL's own lotto.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:41 pm
by foofnik
kyuss wroteCOLONfoofnik wroteCOLONIf you're so concerned that the NHL won't announce specific teams
I am not sure why you guys act like it's not a legit concern.
Not only it is unlikely they will announce it, to me it doesn't even sound like they will know which team (A-H) won it.
In fact, from their website:
"The eight potential losing teams from the qualifiers will be represented in the First Phase of the draft lottery as unassigned picks."
https://www.nhl.com/news/2020-nhl-draft ... -317026602
to me it sounds like all the balls corresponding to teams A-H will be 'packaged' and marked the same way.
In the (first) potential 2nd-phase draw teams will all have 1/8 odds, which alters our pre-lottery odds, so we can't use their 2nd-phase draws if they are needed.
then add the disclaimer and no harm is done. Their lottery is before the proposed BBKL one anyway so either we mirror the results on NHL lottery day (June 26), or they don't share all the information we need and then we run our own later on per the announcement. Seems pretty cut and dry and simple.
Add the disclaimer and then? if one of the draws requires a 2nd-phase draw you can't just re-do our lottery, otherwise you'd give the bottom 7 teams the chance to win it twice.
So we would need to run our own sub-lottery for our A-H teams, but this time we'd need to figure out the odds of our 8-teams lottery so that the total odds (1st-phase lottery + 2nd phase lottery) match the pre NHL lottery odds. To me it sounds like a headache rather than cut and dry. But hey, if it's doable (and someone takes the time to do it right) I'm fine with it.
If the NHL packages Team A through Team H and does not tell us which one wins a lottery position, if any, then the disclaimer kicks in. That is not my understanding of it though, I believe they would announce for example Team F wins the second draw, thus enabling the 2nd draw to be done later on after the play in round is completed.
We have 0 use for the NHL 2nd draw regardless of results. If they announce the specific 3 lottery winners, then we are all set to match them up to our teams. If they generically say one of the non-assigned picks won a lottery position then we do not use the NHL results at all, and instead proceed with your plan to run our own lottery. So it does not matter who wins any of the 3 spots based on the NHL results unless they tell us specifically what pick won each spot. So no there is no opportunity for a team to win twice or for us to do any odds calculations for a second drawing.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:06 pm
by kyuss
If I am reading it right, under your suggestion if the NHL doesn't announce which A-H team won, then our bottom 7 teams will have another chance to win the 3 top spots through our own lottery after they already had the chance to win all 3 top spots through the NHL lottery. That would be wrong.
Also, suppose two of the bottom 7 teams win #1 and #2 overall.. then when #3 goes to an unspecified A-H team you want to tell them that lottery doesn't count anymore?
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:34 pm
by Jordan (VGK)
kyuss wroteCOLONIf I am reading it right, under your suggestion if the NHL doesn't announce which A-H team won, then our bottom 7 teams will have another chance to win the 3 top spots through our own lottery after they already had the chance to win all 3 top spots through the NHL lottery. That would be wrong.
Also, suppose two of the bottom 7 teams win #1 and #2 overall.. then when #3 goes to an unspecified A-H team you want to tell them that lottery doesn't count anymore?
Under both methods, teams who win the NHL lotto will be pissed when it's changed or not used. Go with the route that could potentially make no one pissed.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:52 pm
by lightupdadarkness
Wew
What’s my compensation of being Robbed of my first BBK Cup? Comp picks?
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:07 pm
by kimmer
do we even have final ranking/standing of our bbkl teams
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:37 pm
by Chuck Norris
kimmer wroteCOLONdo we even have final ranking/standing of our bbkl teams
Yes. I've already mapped my pick numbers for the draft minus my lottery pick.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:41 am
by kyuss
Malette18 wroteCOLONkyuss wroteCOLONIf I am reading it right, under your suggestion if the NHL doesn't announce which A-H team won, then our bottom 7 teams will have another chance to win the 3 top spots through our own lottery after they already had the chance to win all 3 top spots through the NHL lottery. That would be wrong.
Also, suppose two of the bottom 7 teams win #1 and #2 overall.. then when #3 goes to an unspecified A-H team you want to tell them that lottery doesn't count anymore?
Under both methods, teams who win the NHL lotto will be pissed when it's changed or not used. Go with the route that could potentially make no one pissed.
you're not considering the amount of 'pissment'' for the affected GMs
having the 3rd draw erasing the outcome of the first two draws would be hilariously bad lol
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:31 am
by Da_Hawks
kyuss wroteCOLONMalette18 wroteCOLONkyuss wroteCOLONIf I am reading it right, under your suggestion if the NHL doesn't announce which A-H team won, then our bottom 7 teams will have another chance to win the 3 top spots through our own lottery after they already had the chance to win all 3 top spots through the NHL lottery. That would be wrong.
Also, suppose two of the bottom 7 teams win #1 and #2 overall.. then when #3 goes to an unspecified A-H team you want to tell them that lottery doesn't count anymore?
Under both methods, teams who win the NHL lotto will be pissed when it's changed or not used. Go with the route that could potentially make no one pissed.
you're not considering the amount of 'pissment'' for the affected GMs
having the 3rd draw erasing the outcome of the first two draws would be hilariously bad lol
This is gonna happen regardless of whether we adopt the NHL method or not. Why count out the NHL draft without first having seen their results?
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:25 am
by kyuss
Whatever, maybe someone else will be able to explain the differences better than I managed to do
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:25 am
by Jordan (VGK)
kyuss wroteCOLONMalette18 wroteCOLONkyuss wroteCOLONIf I am reading it right, under your suggestion if the NHL doesn't announce which A-H team won, then our bottom 7 teams will have another chance to win the 3 top spots through our own lottery after they already had the chance to win all 3 top spots through the NHL lottery. That would be wrong.
Also, suppose two of the bottom 7 teams win #1 and #2 overall.. then when #3 goes to an unspecified A-H team you want to tell them that lottery doesn't count anymore?
Under both methods, teams who win the NHL lotto will be pissed when it's changed or not used. Go with the route that could potentially make no one pissed.
you're not considering the amount of 'pissment'' for the affected GMs
having the 3rd draw erasing the outcome of the first two draws would be hilariously bad lol
And if that 3rd draw is Team H and wouldn’t have cancelled our lottery? No matter what you do NHL lotto results will be looked at for what our results should have been. There’s no much you can do to change that except use their results until it is not possible.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:02 am
by kyuss
if by running our own 2nd-phase lottery we are not able to match the overall pre-lottery odds for all teams, that already would make it not possible.
But if someone puts in the effort to figure out what our 2nd-phase lottery odds should be for teams A-H, I would be happy to use the NHL lottery personally.
But trying to use the NHL lottery and then deciding not to on the base of the outcome of the 1st-phase 3 draws is not the way to go. We can't re-do our own full lottery after we start using the NHL lottery because it would alter the odds in favour of the bottom 7 teams (basically the NHL lottery results would only count for us if the draws reward the bottom 7 teams...). If we use the NHL lottery and at least one of the 1st-phase draws is not won by a bottom-7 team we will then need to have our own 2nd-phase lottery limited to the A-H teams.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:05 am
by Jordan (VGK)
kyuss wroteCOLONif by running our own 2nd-phase lottery we are not able to match the overall pre-lottery odds for all teams, that already would make it not possible.
But if someone puts in the effort to figure out what our 2nd-phase lottery odds should be for teams A-H, I would be happy to use the NHL lottery personally.
But trying to use the NHL lottery and then deciding not to on the base of the outcome of the 1st-phase 3 draws is not the way to go. We can't re-do our own full lottery after we start using the NHL lottery because it would alter the odds in favour of the bottom 7 teams (basically the NHL lottery results would only count for us if the draws reward the bottom 7 teams...). If we use the NHL lottery and at least one of the 1st-phase draws is not won by a bottom-7 team we will then need to have our own 2nd-phase lottery limited to the A-H teams.
Can you just tell me that you understand that Team A to H are the same odds as 8 to 15 normally would and if they announce Team B won 3rd lotto we have no issue. It honestly seems like you don't understand that.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:12 am
by foofnik
No one is getting second chances. If the NHL gives us detailed breakdown then we use that. If they don't then we run our own lottery. Has nothing to do with who might win an NHL lottery position before they don't give us enough information. Its declared beforehand that any nhl results only apply if we have the info we need. So no one can be mad here except at the nhl for not giving us enough info.
But I would rather win an nhl lottery position and have it voided because they don't tell us which non-assigned team won a spot, and then not win a lottery spot in our bbkl run version.
If we don't use nhl results at all for some arbitrary reason this year and I would have won a lottery spot in the nhl one but not in ours i would be ripshit.
There is 0 reason to not use the nhl results the same way its been done every other year. It doesn't even mess up your time-frame and dates.
Re: League Announcements Discussion
PostedCOLON Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:35 am
by kyuss
Malette18 wroteCOLON
Can you just tell me that you understand that Team A to H are the same odds as 8 to 15 normally would and if they announce Team B won 3rd lotto we have no issue. It honestly seems like you don't understand that.
I understand Teams A to H have the same odds as 8 to 15 normally would, but it's unlikely they will announce which A to H team won the draw, especially when they probably won't know that themselves