2019 BBKL Power Rankings

[Arian The Insider]

Pacific4lyfe

[Matthew]

Wish I was metro.

[Fraser]

This is great. Good work.

[Handsome&FairMike]

Some honest shots fired here Matt - great work! Love this shit.

Also - the idea that the metro is the worst division needs to be revisited. 5 teams in the top 16 in the league. Sure not as top heavy as others but solid nonetheless.

This is the average amount of points each division has per team:

Pacific = 1010 points
Central = 997.43 points
Atlantic = 996.88 points
Metro = 965 points

Alright! Touché haha. What’s the median number though out of curiosity?

Pacific -> 1019
Central -> 934
Metro -> 977.5
Atlantic -> 933.5

But it doesn't tell you much.

Tells you just as much as the average. Metro more meat in the middle without top end. Let’s revisit at the end of the year

[hong57]

nice read matt and thanks for doing this.
surprise I am not in the list yet

[CasperX22]

Some honest shots fired here Matt - great work! Love this shit.

Also - the idea that the metro is the worst division needs to be revisited. 5 teams in the top 16 in the league. Sure not as top heavy as others but solid nonetheless.

This is the average amount of points each division has per team:

Pacific = 1010 points
Central = 997.43 points
Atlantic = 996.88 points
Metro = 965 points

Alright! Touché haha. What’s the median number though out of curiosity?

Pacific -> 1019
Central -> 934
Metro -> 977.5
Atlantic -> 933.5

But it doesn't tell you much.

Tells you just as much as the average. Metro more meat in the middle without top end. Let’s revisit at the end of the year

Not really. Just means the Metro has more mediocre teams than other divisions. Metro also only really has 2 good teams and 3 bottom 10 teams. Would be interested to see how each division stacks up against opponents with winning records.

[Bruyns]

15 - VGK (Skaters 13st, Goalies 30th)

Just like how we left off we start with a team getting a good performance from their skaters and being held back by goaltending. VGK should be a playoff lock, but with Mrazek the only goalie playing on the roster a few bad skater weeks could see this team take a lot of losses. This is only year 2 for this franchise and the team is built with a lot of win now players with not a lot coming up the pipeline, I am sure Jordan will begin to put more of his stamp on the team this offseason as he had no say in some questionable personnel decisions like taking Holden over Tatar. It will be interesting to see the direction this team takes, do you try and squeeze out a few more competitive seasons with an aging C and D core or start selling with an eye to the future?

Strengths - 2nd in +-, 6th in blocks, 8th in FOW, 2nd in SHTOI
Weaknesses - Goaltending, offence

Biggest Surprise - Tom Wilson
Biggest Disappointment - Kevin Shattenkirk



14 - NYI (Skaters 16th, Goalies 18th)

It feels like I have been incorrectly predicting a decline from Tony's teams for a couple seasons now and this year it seems like it's finally coming to fruition. Sitting 16th overall in the combined standings this isn't a huge drop off and he still has a playoff spot pretty much locked up, but if it wasn't for a recent hot streak this season was looking like a down year. This isn't the typical Isles team I'm used to filled with old guys and relying on periphs to win, NYI have an above average offence and some good young players. A conscious effort was made to hold onto youth sometimes to his detriment (4 years of turning down Koekkoek offers) and that has resulted in a team positioned to be competitive for a few more years as opposed to the past where the expectation was half Tony's team would retire one year and he wouldn't be able to ice a roster.

Strengths - 8th in PIMs, 7th in hits
Weaknesses - 25th in FOW, 22nd in SHTOI

Biggest Surprise - Mark Giordano/Timo Meier
Biggest Disappointment - James Neal



13 - PIT (Skaters 12th, Goalies 17th)

PIT was a powerhouse team my first few years and it's good to see them becoming relevant again especially since the Metro could use a little more competition with 30 out of 31 teams agreeing it's the worst division. Despite Mike's best efforts of pointing out median point totals to try and confuse and distract people from the truth this division is one where teams look forward to their divisional matchups to pad their standings. This year PIT has been good enough that he would likely make the playoffs in any division rather than getting in by default. Interestingly if the playoffs started today it would be the battle of the doctors and I believe according to the Hippocratic Oath the loser buys Leafs tickets for the BBKL meet up.

Strengths - 3rd in SHTOI
Weaknesses - 23rd in STP

Biggest Surprise - Kasperi Kapanen
Biggest Disappointment - Jake DeBrusk



12 - CGY (Skaters 11th, Goalies 20th)

Josh has been near the top of these rankings in recent seasons and has taken a small step backwards this year. One of the healthier franchises in BBKL, Josh may not have the horses to win it all, but he is competitive and has enough prospects in the minors that it's hard to see this team being anything but good in the next few years. The biggest issue is where the offence is going to come from as this has been an elite periphs team for years. Kuz, Ryjo and Pastrnak are elite but outside of them Ehlers and Ritchie are the only 20+ point players on the team right now. We have seen teams with periph heavy builds win in the past, but typically they need to be paired with great goaltending and that is missing right now.

Strengths - 2nd in PIMs, 1st in hits, 9th in SHTOI
Weaknesses - below average offence

Biggest Surprise - Mackenzie Blackwood
Biggest Disappointment - Ryan Donato



11 - VAN (Skaters 15th, Goalies 1st)

Fraser's team has some similarities to his division rival Josh in that they both rely on other stats to win in spite of below average offences. Fraser joined the league and was very active making moves and they paid off and he was seen as an up and coming team to beat. I think the growth has stagnated a bit, but the mix of good GMs we have now makes it a little more difficult to trade since we have so many conservative GMs who are choosing to build through the draft. Perhaps not quite as active as before (living in Australia would be a welcome distraction) this GM still knows how to build a team to succeed as long as he can avoid overpaying to acquire the next Kassian.

Strengths - Goaltending, 3rd in FOW, 4th in SHTOI, 7th in blocks and PIMs
Weaknesses - below average offence

Biggest Surprise - Mikko Koskinen
Biggest Disappointment - Ryan Kesler



10 - EDM (Skaters 10th, Goalies 6th)

Our first top 10 team and 3rd Pacific team in a row we have Arian's Oilers. Still one of the more dangerous offensive teams, EDM can now boast middle of the pack periphs which is a big improvement on past seasons and has resulted in more wins. Goaltending seemed like a weakness, but a career reviving season from Lehner has turned it into a strength although not sure I trust that going forward. Not a team I would want to see in the playoffs, his offence gives him upset potential and with players like Suzuki, Chytil, Hague, Mitchell and Alexeyev the pipeline is still flowing.

Strengths - 5th in G, 6th in A
Weaknesses - 27th in PIM

Biggest Surprise - Jake Guentzel
Biggest Disappointment - Vladislav Namestnikov



9 - WAS (Skaters 9th, Goalies 9th)

This seems low after a couple seasons where Thom was a top 5 team and legit contender, but his team has only been OK this year. Lucky for him there's only a handful of very good teams in the East so his shot at making the finals is still pretty good. Despite the decent odds at going on a deep run the most likely outcome is still BOS getting hot and knocking him out in the first round after crossing over to the Metro. After years of regular season success and playoff futility the Caps seemed like the apt franchise for Thom until they pulled off the big win last year, could this finally be Thom's year too? Haha who am I kidding of course not.

Strengths - 3rd hits + blocks, 6th in PIMs
Weaknesses - 20th in FOW

Biggest Surprise - Cam Atkinson
Biggest Disappointment - Jason Zucker/Michael Del Zotto



8 - PHI (Skaters 8th, Goalies 21st)

Lee is back to being a contender again, I remember a few years back he made trades to compete before deciding he wasn't good enough and partially tearing it down. The top of the rankings are filled with a lot of veteran GMs and no one will question Lee's ability to recognize talent and build a team. There was some talk in the past about getting over the hump and how although Lee could rebuild a team he has never built a true top team that can win it all. Hopefully in the next few years we will see Lee take that last step and try and field a winning team and make the sacrifices necessary to do so. With it being a 2 horse race in his division in the near future he should have a good shot and a deep run.

Strengths - 2nd in G, STPTS + pts,
Weaknesses - 24th in hits

Biggest Surprise - Blake Coleman/Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Biggest Disappointment - Connor Sheary



7 - DAL (skaters 7th, goalies 24th)

2 years ago on Jan 23rd I said this about Will's team "Still a lot of dead weight on this roster and a few years away from being competitive, but also still has more futures than he needs and could accelerate the rebuild if he so chooses." I had him ranked 26th at the time and it didn't take a few years to become competitive as he broke out last year after making more trades. Not all the rebuilding teams are set up the way Will was, but it goes to show you it's possible to climb out of the basement and become a contender with a quick turn around. The hard part is having an extended stay at the top like we have seen some top teams have and we will see if DAL becomes a fixture at the top of the standings for years to come.

Strengths - 5th in A + STPTS, 4th in blocks, 1st in FOW
Weaknesses - 26th in PIM

Biggest Surprise - Tyler Motte
Biggest Disappointment - Mikhail Sergachev/Clayton Keller



6 - TBL (skaters 5th, goalies 11th)

Tampa has always been a strong BBKL team, but now with a stats focused GM we are seeing them become a contender again. Nick was a good GM, but he fell in love with some players and traded for players he liked sometimes at the expense of building an optimal team. In it's hay day Tampa was the epitome of the stars and scrubs build with some of the best players and a dynamite offence with little periphs and some empty stat line players. As someone who vouched for Jimmy and have known him in another league I'm not at all surprised to see him succeeding. A very quiet GM in the mold of a FLA/WPG Jimmy has gone about his business improving his team while others have scoffed at a lot of his deals it's clear he has a knack for how to be competitive in this format. I remember last year feeling like I did pretty well getting Bozak for Polak + and everyone pretty much agreed but in hindsight I could sure use a cheap periph monster like Polak over 5M Bozak and his average stats.

Strengths - 1st in GWG, 4th in blocks, 6th in hits
Weaknesses - nil

Biggest Surprise - Carl Soderberg
Biggest Disappointment - TJ Oshie



5 - TOR (skaters 6th, goalies 7th)

This is the lowest Toronto has ever been in a power ranking, but they are still a top team. The auto-pilot GM also known as Mike is starting to take its toll and these are not the same feared Leafs of yesteryear. I have little doubt if we had the active Mike from the past this team would have made deals to shore up depth and likely be battling with Steve for best record. An issue for this team is it's only 12th in skater GP and no longer has the wealth of waiver exempt NHLers sitting in his minors. After trading away so much in deals for Matthews and McDavid one could have predicted the depth would suffer, but this is compounded with Mike's more hands off approach the last couple of seasons. Also why does he still have good goaltending? The Kings are one of the worst teams in the league and yet still play enough low scoring games.

Strengths - 2nd A, 4th in pts, 5th in PIMs, 6th in SOG
Weaknesses - nil

Biggest Surprise - Brett Howden
Biggest Disappointment - Jamie Benn/Wayne Simmonds/Patrick Maroon



4 - MIN (skaters 2nd, goalies 13th)

Here we have an example of why Fantrax rankings need to be taken with a grain of salt. MIN is ranked 2nd with NSH 3rd and when comparing it seems to me like Mik should have the edge since he has better stats in 7 of the 11 skater cats and Hong only leads in goals, hits, +- and GWG, but based on how close they are and with Hong having a decided advantage in hits and +- it sways the rankings in his favour. Needless to say they are both elite teams and we are at the point in the rankings where teams are pretty interchangeable. Hong's team is impressive, it has been elite for years now and he seems to give away some players every offseason to stay cap compliant and is still a top team the next season. Has to be pretty much championship or bust for this team and the next in the rankings and I'm hoping for another playoff battle between them this season.

Strengths - 3rd in G, 5th in pts, 1st in GWG, 2nd in hits
Weaknesses - 17th in PIMs

Biggest Surprise - Elias Lindholm
Biggest Disappointment - Tyler Toffoli



3 - NSH (skaters 3rd, goalies 15th)

I think I can say with confidence that Mik is the best team to have never won. Always loaded with quality depth Mik often has a handful of better players in his minors than most teams have on their team. The only person who probably wouldn't be surprised at the 0 championships is Don Cherry since it's obvious that his reliance on Euro's means his team lacks heart and doesn't show the grit and dedication needed to win the big game. This year the path to the finals is the toughest we have seen yet for Mik and he will likely have to go through both Hong and Steve to get a chance at whoever comes out of the East.

Strengths - 3rd in A + pts, 1st SOG
Weaknesses - 22nd in +- 19th in hits

Biggest Surprise - That he has 8 1sts in the next 2 drafts
Biggest Disappointment - Andre Burakovsky/Valeri Nichushkin/Casey Mittlestadt/Pavel Buchnevich (He can just play other NHLers though since he has so many)



2 - BUF (skaters 4th, goalies 10th)

I'm not going to write about myself, I'll just let my b2b wins do the talking.

Strengths - 1st in PIMs, 3rd SOG, 4th in hits, 5th in SHTOI
Weaknesses - 18th in FOW

Biggest Surprise - Ian Cole
Biggest Disappointment - Robby Fabbri



1 - LAK (skaters 1st, goalies 3rd)

Steve has the best team right now and it's really not that close. No team has won 3 championships and Steve is looking to join that club this year. It's not going to be easy, but he has to be odds on favourite based on this historically dominant regular season. Might be tough to keep this team together under the cap, but right now this looks like a deep team with no weaknesses. Not really much to write here since I don't want to just keep singing Steve's praises but he has earned that until he loses in the playoffs hopefully to me!

Strengths - 1st in G, A, SHTOI, and blocks
Weaknesses - only 9th in FOW

Biggest Surprise - Marc-Andre Fleury
Biggest Disappointment - Connor Brown

[Matthew]

Pretty dead on evaluations.

[dave1959]

awesome read...thanks Matt

[Jordan (VGK)]

15 - VGK (Skaters 13st, Goalies 30th)

Just like how we left off we start with a team getting a good performance from their skaters and being held back by goaltending. VGK should be a playoff lock, but with Mrazek the only goalie playing on the roster a few bad skater weeks could see this team take a lot of losses. This is only year 2 for this franchise and the team is built with a lot of win now players with not a lot coming up the pipeline, I am sure Jordan will begin to put more of his stamp on the team this offseason as he had no say in some questionable personnel decisions like taking Holden over Tatar. It will be interesting to see the direction this team takes, do you try and squeeze out a few more competitive seasons with an aging C and D core or start selling with an eye to the future?

Strengths - 2nd in +-, 6th in blocks, 8th in FOW, 2nd in SHTOI
Weaknesses - Goaltending, offence

Biggest Surprise - Tom Wilson
Biggest Disappointment - Kevin Shattenkirk

Agreed with this. Middling team with no one in the immediate pay out in my pool. It's an interesting team as the vast majority of my pool is 2017/18 draftees. I basically only have players at one stage of the prospect life cycle, most prospect pools have the 22 year olds who can surprise you out of camp that you drafted in 2015 or called up mid season. I don't really have much of that to hope for until 19/20 at the earliest. It will likely come with an influx of players 2 years or so down the road as some of these picks start paying off, but in the interim NHL depth isn't a strong suit for this club.

[thom54]

awesome writeup!

[Handsome&FairMike]

Well done Matt. Like the topical add-ins! median > mean haha.
So Tom - leaf tix for the loser??

[thom54]

IF we meet in the playoffs - Loser pays for the date at the ACC. and FYI I'll enjoy some nice Real Sports wings pre-game too - thanks Mike !

[tbone]

Great job on this Matt - showing your leadership ways as always in putting all this together and makes for lots of interesting reading. Still would've liked a do-over on the Bozak deal though.., particularly with Mironov jetting for the K, admit I did zero research on him. Even though realized value turned out ok, could've optimized the perceived value of Bozak more at the time, as goal should always be to maximize both. And in hindsight probably should've chosen Cole instead, he's turned out into even a bigger peripheral monster this season.

[Lee]

Alex CHiasson is a far bigger surprise than Blake Coleman

[kyuss]

Nice to have these back, thanks Matt.

I assume this ranking only pertains to the active lineups and their competitiveness as far as THIS season goes.

Even in that case, I'm not sure why my team is lower than yours when it's up 65 points in the standings
Unless both previous titles and path to the final factor in.

The disappointments clearly lie in the young supporting cast on the wing, which has failed to step up and contribute the way that was expected. That's probably the reason my team is currently 3rd in points rather than 1st. To the guys you correctly mentioned I'd definitely add Roslovic, even if not because of him really under-performing on the ice but because of the role he's been given until a few games ago. Hopefully he will step up as a BBKL winger after the second positional update the way Vatrano has been doing lately.

As for the path to the final, assuming I manage to win my division in the regular season for the first time (which I realize is still far from a given), I think I've faced a tougher path in the past, at least this time I'd start the 1st round as clear favorite rather than being a 50-50 match-up like in past years.

[Bruyns]

I could have ranked you over me, I was going more along the lines of I'm still on top until someone knocks me off. I couldn't put me ahead of Steve though since his team has been ridiculous this year so far.

I don't really look at the standings, strength of schedule can make a big difference and if this period I win all my matches 15-1 or 14-2 and you lose all yours 1-15 or 2-14 then I would fly past you.

[lightupdadarkness]

Nice two years top 10! If I can finally get healthy I might be able to make a run....fingers crossed thanks Matt great read

[Da_Hawks]

My team is first place in the hearts of our fans.

[lightupdadarkness]

My team is first place in the hearts of our fans.

Hahahaha that was great