Trade: DET/STL

[MSP4LYFE]

I did not feel like Reimer was a good goalie last year, at all - despite his numbers indicating that he was solid. Stats without the context are not useful.

Reimer's numbers are even more impressive with context, the Leafs were one of the worst CORSI and FENWICK teams last season, and PDO ranked them as the luckiest team in the NHL. Not to mention that Reimer's ESS% (which is one of the best indicators of a goalies true talent level) was eleventh among starters who played 30 or more games (.924), likewise with his SHS% (.924).

[Nick]

I would love to have it explained how the same aspect that drives up a goalies SV% (Shots) is the same thing that proves they are good. Work-load perhaps, not quality of shots or ability of the goalie.



I'm a firm believer that there are goalies who have inflated sv% because teams throw junk at them, because they are more likely to let in junk. Reimer is in that category.

Another cause for a false-increase of SV% is a team D with a high zone pressure, gives lots of distance shots but not a lot of cross ice passes.


At the same time, there are team who lower their goalies SV% - by always having the puck, or with very little d-zone commitment, or the few teams who apparently do not run zone D (combated by allowing a million shots).

[bma]

Goalies in the NHL are like runnings backs in the NFL. The system plays a big role with how a goalie fares just like how the offensive line plays a big role in how a running back plays.

very true, but put Joseph Addai on Minny and he will still suck whereas I have a feeling Adrian Peterson wouldn't struggle at all on the Colts. The system can mask a poor player but it will never make a star out of them.

Sure, but AP isn't human lol. How many AP equivalent goalies are there in the NHL? I mean, you could even argue NJ's system played a big part in making who Brodeur is. Same with Rask and Boston. Rinne in the NSH system. Any goalie in the current STL system. Any goalie in the PHX system. List goes on..

There are only 30 starting NHL goalies in the league, the 30 best goalies in the world. The talent difference at that level is minimal between goalies. You obviously have some exceptions who are just at another level but the vast majority of goalies have their successes and failures largely affected by their teams system.

[Nick]

I agree to some extent Bryma - some goalies will be great regardless of system (Lundqvist, Price) some because of their system ( STL, PHX) but most others are poor-good-great in conjunction with their team system

[bma]

I agree to some extent Bryma - some goalies will be great regardless of system (Lundqvist, Price) some because of their system ( STL, PHX) but most others are poor-good-great in conjunction with their team system

I think there are only 1-2 maybe 3 goalies in the NHL that fall under this category.

[MSP4LYFE]

I would love to have it explained how the same aspect that drives up a goalies SV% (Shots) is the same thing that proves they are good. Work-load perhaps, not quality of shots or ability of the goalie.

It's not very complicated, the more saves you make the higher your S%. Similarly, the more shots directed towards your net, relative to the rest of the league, the greater the likelihood that the opposition is spending more time in the defensive zone, which correlates to goals against.

The Leafs are among the worst teams in this regard which means that they are spending an inordinate amount of time in their own zone, this presumably leads to more shots against. This is supported by shots against per game, which ranks Reimer (27.84) third among all NHL starters, behind only Ryan Miller (29.05) and Braden Holtby (28.69)

I'm a firm believer that there are goalies who have inflated sv% because teams throw junk at them, because they are more likely to let in junk. Reimer is in that category.

I am not even going to qualify this argument with a response.

Another cause for a false-increase of SV% is a team D with a high zone pressure, gives lots of distance shots but not a lot of cross ice passes.

As you can see here, James Reimer faced his fair share of shots in close. The Leafs are much improved in this regard from seasons past, but they are still nowhere near good enough to hide a goalies deficiencies.

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index.ph ... rch=Search

[Nick]

Time in zone is correlated with facing more shots, which is correlated with higher SV%.

I agree, and would point out that is exactly what I said.

[MSP4LYFE]

Shot quality is an important variable that can change that. Intuitively I would think that more high quality shots against would lead to a lower, not higher S%.