2020 Draft Discussion

2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:17 pm

Lottery watch:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Lottery order hasn't been finalized due to Boston's adjusted points have yet to be calculated.


I have the top 3 pick odds posted but here's the expanded odds:
http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Da_Hawks » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:23 am

Stupid lottery draft. Great for the NHL, worse thing to happy to fantasy hockey.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:56 pm

I have each of our 15 slots matched with the respective NHL team. Maybe we'll know our draft order by Friday night.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Matthew » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:46 pm

I believe with my 2 picks I'm at 22.5% to get at least one lottery spot. Not great odds, but wouldn't it be nice.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby kimmer » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:07 am

are we gonna have a compiled final draft order for our league yet?
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Matthew » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:13 am

1-15 is at top of thread.

Except it's wrong, as it should have me 1st and 2nd.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby dave1959 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:44 am

and Boston is the only team that cannot win the lottery, correct?
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:46 am

Regardless of the lottery results, I'll finalize the balance of the draft order tonight.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby kimmer » Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:26 am

yea i wanted to see the rest of 16-31
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby kyuss » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:28 am

is there a place where to see the correspondence between the NHL teams and BBKL teams ahead of tonight's lottery?
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Matthew » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:34 am

Doesn't matter. Anaheim #1 + #2
Last edited by Matthew on Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:48 am

kyuss wrote:is there a place where to see the correspondence between the NHL teams and BBKL teams ahead of tonight's lottery?


In the opening post:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... jqBtc/edit
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:01 am

I think tonight is more about how they present the results more than the actual results. If any of those 8 teams move up to the top 3, I hope they say which one it is. We can put our draft order together if all they tell us is tell us who is in top 3. We can figure out that if Detroit (NHL)/Chicago (BBKL) doesn't end up with a top 3 pick, we know they're 4th overall.

If any of those 8 move up, then their draft order will have 8 spots undetermined until they do that next draw. If they have to do a 2nd draw, that result could be wild given the even odds for all 8 spots. Pittsburgh, Edmonton or Carolina getting top 3 pick...yikes. But that would mean they got bounced way too early.

If the top 3 is drama-free, then we can predict what the NHL's order will end up. Montreal or Chicago would be in the #8 spot most likely. If the qualifying round has a lot of surprises, the draft order could be interesting.

Also what's fun is the fact it seems there's various opinions of who slots in after Lafreniere. Doesn't seem like Byfield is the consensus #2.

The Wings still need defense help the most but it seems like a top 4 pick should yield them a forward. Would Yzerman go with Drysdale is they slide to #4? If they don't get #1, I really don't care either end up #2, #3 or #4. Lafreniere is the prize.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Matthew » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:06 am

Shoalzie wrote:I think tonight is more about how they present the results more than the actual results. If any of those 8 teams move up to the top 3, I hope they say which one it is. We can put our draft order together if all they tell us is tell us who is in top 3. We can figure out that if Detroit (NHL)/Chicago (BBKL) doesn't end up with a top 3 pick, we know they're 4th overall.


Maybe I'm the only one, but the actual results are pretty important to me. :-P
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby kimmer » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:08 am

Shoalzie wrote:
kyuss wrote:is there a place where to see the correspondence between the NHL teams and BBKL teams ahead of tonight's lottery?


In the opening post:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... jqBtc/edit

IF i would share my devised standings... (attached image)
I know that ANA had 1291 pts and FLA had 1254 pts in BBKL... so why does ANA become Team H?
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Matthew » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:12 am

Florida made the playoffs.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby kimmer » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:15 am

nm right
i confused myself
looked deceiving
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:21 am

Our lottery teams are the same regardless of us not finishing the playoffs. Florida was the lowest seeded of the playoff teams so their spot is #16 but Vancouver owns that pick.

The current order (pre-lottery) is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1885971352
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:29 am

Damn, Paul...just looking at the order...5 picks in the top 32. This could be a game-changing draft for you.
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Re: 2020 Draft Discussion

Postby Shoalzie » Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:46 pm

I was working on my own draft simulator and it's interesting how similar my Excel simulator is to their process.

They use 1000 "IDs" for the picks. The Wings at #1 get 185 "sequences" of the 1000 4-number sequences (18.5%) while Team H gets 10 of 1000 (1.0%). Each sequence is a number (ball) 1 through 14 where no number is repeated.

In Excel, I did 1000 "lots" with 185 for the #1 team (18.5%). I created combinations using several random numbers and the combination that would be "drawn" gets the pick. Fairly similar process but they narrowed down to 1 through 14 as the possible values and only 4 balls draw to create a sequence.
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