2018 Draft Discussion

Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:19 pm

Considering centers are generally worth more when equalized and Hayton and Kot went before Zadina, the market is what it is. Kot was not going to be available at 7 or 8. Hayton was over drafted absolutely, but there was no way Kot was going to make it past Arizona at 5.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:28 pm

You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Malette18 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:29 pm

My assumption is ARZ wanted Kot and had their heart set on a C. Bold strategy cotton
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:41 pm

CasperX22 wrote:You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.



The general consensus was that there was very little separation between picks 4-10. By those standards, Montreal drafted Kot one spot too high.

Let's take a look at the general consensus for Romanovs rankings..

Rankings
Ranked #156 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #179 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #115 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #83 by TSN/McKenzie


I see the problem. Maybe he was a little dyslexic on Bob's rankings?
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:42 pm

Malette18 wrote:My assumption is ARZ wanted Kot and had their heart set on a C. Bold strategy cotton


Or they legitimately were higher on the centers than the wingers. Clearly based on the way the draft unfolded, teams were quite a bit higher on the centers than the media. I just can't fathom how Arizona or anyone else came to the conclusion that he was a top 10 caliber pick. It was more ludicrous than anyone thinking Veleno was a top 10 talent.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:44 pm

Lee wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.



The general consensus was that there was very little separation between picks 4-10. By those standards, Montreal drafted Kot one spot too high.

Let's take a look at the general consensus for Romanovs rankings..

Rankings
Ranked #156 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #179 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #115 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #83 by TSN/McKenzie


I see the problem. Maybe he was a little dyslexic on Bob's rankings?


Even if you want to conviently use that logic...the difference in value from 4 to 3 is still higher than a 7th rounder being taken in the 2nd. That's how important those top 10 picks are.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:45 pm

CasperX22 wrote:
Lee wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.



The general consensus was that there was very little separation between picks 4-10. By those standards, Montreal drafted Kot one spot too high.

Let's take a look at the general consensus for Romanovs rankings..

Rankings
Ranked #156 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #179 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #115 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #83 by TSN/McKenzie


I see the problem. Maybe he was a little dyslexic on Bob's rankings?


Even if you want to conviently use that logic...the difference in value from 4 to 3 is still higher than a 7th rounder being taken in the 2nd. That's how important those top 10 picks are.


So explain Ottawa passing on Zadina as well as Arizona?
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Malette18 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:47 pm

Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Malette18 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:49 pm

CasperX22 wrote:
Malette18 wrote:My assumption is ARZ wanted Kot and had their heart set on a C. Bold strategy cotton


Or they legitimately were higher on the centers than the wingers. Clearly based on the way the draft unfolded, teams were quite a bit higher on the centers than the media. I just can't fathom how Arizona or anyone else came to the conclusion that he was a top 10 caliber pick. It was more ludicrous than anyone thinking Veleno was a top 10 talent.

Drafting for need is a bitch when there’s a shortage
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:49 pm

Malette18 wrote:Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped



Yeah, I wouldn't have taken him at 25.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:51 pm

Malette18 wrote:Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped


Pretty much this and which further proves my point that values between team vary because different scouts see different things. Also Lee, you don't get to use the logic that Montreal knew what they were doing when they took Kot, but were clueless when they took Romanov. Either they were clueless and reached for both, or they are savvy drafters. Take your pick.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Malette18 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:55 pm

CasperX22 wrote:
Malette18 wrote:Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped


Pretty much this and which further proves my point that values between team vary because different scouts see different things. Also Lee, you don't get to use the logic that Montreal knew what they were doing when they took Kot, but were clueless when they took Romanov. Either they were clueless and reached for both, or they are savvy drafters. Take your pick.

I don't even know if Ottawa has scouts anymore. Would support the theory of not drafting euros as it's expensive to fly there.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:56 pm

Malette18 wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:
Malette18 wrote:My assumption is ARZ wanted Kot and had their heart set on a C. Bold strategy cotton


Or they legitimately were higher on the centers than the wingers. Clearly based on the way the draft unfolded, teams were quite a bit higher on the centers than the media. I just can't fathom how Arizona or anyone else came to the conclusion that he was a top 10 caliber pick. It was more ludicrous than anyone thinking Veleno was a top 10 talent.

Drafting for need is a bitch when there’s a shortage


There really wasn't a shortage, just that there was only 1 that belonged in the top 10 conversation. Plenty of good ones, but nothing really elite.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:01 pm

Malette18 wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:
Malette18 wrote:Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped


Pretty much this and which further proves my point that values between team vary because different scouts see different things. Also Lee, you don't get to use the logic that Montreal knew what they were doing when they took Kot, but were clueless when they took Romanov. Either they were clueless and reached for both, or they are savvy drafters. Take your pick.

I don't even know if Ottawa has scouts anymore. Would support the theory of not drafting euros as it's expensive to fly there.


Probably.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:05 pm

CasperX22 wrote:
Malette18 wrote:Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped


Pretty much this and which further proves my point that values between team vary because different scouts see different things. Also Lee, you don't get to use the logic that Montreal knew what they were doing when they took Kot, but were clueless when they took Romanov. Either they were clueless and reached for both, or they are savvy drafters. Take your pick.



If only the world were that black and white and the same rule set that applied to one thing applies to another.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:17 pm

Lee wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:
Malette18 wrote:Ottawa is retarded. Locked into Tkachuk weeks ago, didn’t matter if Dahlin dropped


Pretty much this and which further proves my point that values between team vary because different scouts see different things. Also Lee, you don't get to use the logic that Montreal knew what they were doing when they took Kot, but were clueless when they took Romanov. Either they were clueless and reached for both, or they are savvy drafters. Take your pick.



If only the world were that black and white and the same rule set that applied to one thing applies to another.


It is that black and white in this instance, so which is it?
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:24 pm

I'm not saying they didn't over draft Kot at that position. I've posted multiple times that it's stupid to draft for need.

I am saying that multiple teams passed over the 3rd ranked prospect. Maybe the scouts know something about Zadina that we don't?

Montreal drafted for need with Kot but it's a stretch to call him a reach at 3 when he would have been an acceptable pick at 4 as compared to selecting a prospect at 38 that was expected to be drafted much, much later.
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby lightupdadarkness » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:53 pm

Lee wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.



The general consensus was that there was very little separation between picks 4-10. By those standards, Montreal drafted Kot one spot too high.

Let's take a look at the general consensus for Romanovs rankings..

Rankings
Ranked #156 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #179 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #115 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #83 by TSN/McKenzie


I see the problem. Maybe he was a little dyslexic on Bob's rankings?



If we are using rankings here's JASPER KOTKANIEMI's


Ranked #8 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #13 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #16 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #13 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #6 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #5 by TSN/McKenzie

Going off rankings average of Kot draft rankings is 10.16. Say that more than a stretch to get to 3OV and not call him a reach if you are using rankings as you previously did. Teams 3-5 drafted based on need IMO with Det at 6 going best player available with Zadina. Drafting for need is pretty much always a mistake IMO especially 1st round and the higher up you pick. Long story short teams take who they want and we do the same and we usually won't know for years how things really turn out
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby Lee » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:07 pm

lightupdadarkness wrote:
Lee wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.



The general consensus was that there was very little separation between picks 4-10. By those standards, Montreal drafted Kot one spot too high.

Let's take a look at the general consensus for Romanovs rankings..

Rankings
Ranked #156 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #179 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #115 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #83 by TSN/McKenzie


I see the problem. Maybe he was a little dyslexic on Bob's rankings?



If we are using rankings here's JASPER KOTKANIEMI's


Ranked #8 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #13 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #16 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #13 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #6 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #5 by TSN/McKenzie

Going off rankings average of Kot draft rankings is 10.16. Say that more than a stretch to get to 3OV and not call him a reach if you are using rankings as you previously did. Teams 3-5 drafted based on need IMO with Det at 6 going best player available with Zadina. Drafting for need is pretty much always a mistake IMO especially 1st round and the higher up you pick. Long story short teams take who they want and we do the same and we usually won't know for years how things really turn out



Go look at FC rankings and see how close they were to the actual outcome.
Do the same for ISS
And then do the same for Mckeen.

Again, you are looking at things in black and white and again, without context.

For a fun though process game. Go check and see who NHL CS has ranked ahead of Kot at #5
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Re: 2018 Draft Discussion

Postby CasperX22 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:12 pm

lightupdadarkness wrote:
Lee wrote:
CasperX22 wrote:You have no way of knowing that lol! Nobody in the world outside of Arizona's table had any idea that they would take Hayton that high. You can't say Hayton was overdrafted and in the same breath say that Kot wasn't if we are going to use consensus rankings here. Arizona could've had O'Brien higher than Kot for all we know because I sure as hell was higher on O'Brien than Hayton. Different scouts can watch the same kid and see something completely different at the same time because they value something differently. Montreal clearly saw something in Romanov that none of us saw and in a draft where the strength of the draft was defenders no less. And considering that they took him that high I would be willing to bet they weren't the only team much higher on him than the media outlets were.



The general consensus was that there was very little separation between picks 4-10. By those standards, Montreal drafted Kot one spot too high.

Let's take a look at the general consensus for Romanovs rankings..

Rankings
Ranked #156 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #179 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #115 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #83 by TSN/McKenzie


I see the problem. Maybe he was a little dyslexic on Bob's rankings?



If we are using rankings here's JASPER KOTKANIEMI's


Ranked #8 by HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
Ranked #13 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #16 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #13 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #6 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
Ranked #5 by TSN/McKenzie

Going off rankings average of Kot draft rankings is 10.16. Say that more than a stretch to get to 3OV and not call him a reach if you are using rankings as you previously did. Teams 3-5 drafted based on need IMO with Det at 6 going best player available with Zadina. Drafting for need is pretty much always a mistake IMO especially 1st round and the higher up you pick. Long story short teams take who they want and we do the same and we usually won't know for years how things really turn out


I actually think they didn't draft based on need. I think they legitimately fell in love with the prospects they took. Certainly doesn't make their assessments correct. Chayka is an analytics slave. Kot had one of the most impressive analytics profiles in the draft and Hayton had a very strong profile as well. Hence overlooking 1. Hayton's physical limitations as a prospect and 2. his lack of traditional based statistical output. I think Hayton was legitimately higher on his board.
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